Tesla(US:TSLA)2025-12-08 02:30Tesla Inc. Research Call Summary Company Overview - Company: Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) - Industry: Autos & Shared Mobility - Market Cap: $1,604,330 million - Current Stock Price: $455.00 (as of December 5, 2025) - Price Target: Increased from $410.00 to $425.00, implying a 6% downside from current levels [4][10] Key Points Rating and Valuation - Rating Change: Coverage assumed at Equal-weight from Overweight [4][10] - Valuation Framework: A full refresh of the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation framework was conducted, leading to a $15/share upside to the prior price target [10] - Humanoid Business Value: Updated model includes $60/share of value for Tesla's Humanoid business (Optimus) [10][12] Market Position and Outlook - Market Leadership: Tesla is recognized as a global leader in electric vehicles, renewable energy, and AI, justifying a premium valuation [4][10] - Choppy Trading Environment: Anticipated volatility in TSLA shares over the next 12 months due to downside risks to estimates and priced-in non-auto catalysts [4][10] Financial Projections - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Projected EPS for fiscal years ending December 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $2.41, $1.66, $1.98, and $2.69 respectively [8] - Auto Volume Forecast: MSe auto volume forecast is 13% below consensus for 2026, reflecting a more cautious EV industry outlook [10] Business Segments Autos - Valuation: Auto business valued at $55/share, based on long-term DCF with 13% annual unit growth through 2040 [34] - Market Share: Expected to maintain 9-11% of the global EV market by 2040 [34] Energy - Valuation: Energy business valued at $40/share, with storage deployments expected to compound at an 18% growth rate through 2040 [55] - Market Position: Tesla is a leading provider of Energy Storage Systems (ESS), with gross margins improving from 7% in 2022 to 31% in 2025 [50] Robotaxi (Tesla Mobility) - Market Penetration: By 2030, Tesla's fleet is expected to capture 20% of the US autonomous vehicle market with 30,000 vehicles [61] - Valuation: Tesla Mobility valued at $125/share, with a projected fleet scaling from 1,000 units in 2026 to 5 million by 2040 [66] Humanoids - Market Potential: The global humanoid market could reach $7.5 trillion annually by 2050, with Tesla expected to capture significant market share [71][77] - Valuation: Humanoids valued at $60/share, reflecting Tesla's leadership in AI and manufacturing [78] Risks and Challenges - Competition: Increased competition and margin pressure across all business lines could impact Tesla's market share and profitability [11] - Regulatory Hurdles: Challenges in scaling autonomous vehicles in adverse weather conditions and regulatory environments [60] Conclusion - Tesla remains a strong player in the EV and renewable energy markets, with significant growth potential in humanoids and robotaxi services. However, the company faces challenges from competition and market volatility, necessitating a cautious investment approach at this time [4][10][11]