茅台稳价动作解读

Summary of Moutai Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Moutai - Industry: Alcoholic Beverages Key Points and Arguments Strategic Adjustments for 2026 - Moutai will no longer rigidly pursue growth targets, focusing instead on industry confidence and market perception, with an expected reduction of 15-20 billion RMB, approximately 10% of 2025's volume, through the restructuring of three major products (1,935, Ordinary Flying, and Boutique Moutai) and expanding special channels to compensate for the reduction [1][4] - The strategy for non-standard products will shift from a quota system to a distribution system, ceasing production or reducing underperforming products like Rare Moutai and Zodiac kilograms from 2015, aimed at alleviating financial pressure on distributors and stabilizing Ordinary Flying prices [1][2] Pricing and Supply Strategies - Moutai aims to stabilize the supply of Ordinary Flying, potentially increasing it moderately, while introducing new channels (e-commerce, overseas markets, new distributors) to balance relationships and prices, ensuring a stable price for Ordinary Flying, which is crucial for the premium products' pricing [1][12] - The price of Boutique Moutai is expected to be adjusted to around 2000 RMB, which could increase sales volume from 20 billion RMB to 50 billion RMB or more, with plans for contract management to enhance distributor motivation [3][26] Distributor and Channel Management - The transition from a quota system to a contract system is expected to improve market stability by encouraging distributors to value their resources and invest in brand promotion, thus avoiding market disruption from low-price sales [9][10] - Moutai plans to set entry barriers for small distributors, favoring larger distributors who can better manage risks and maintain market order [10] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The reduction of non-standard products is anticipated to relieve pressure on Ordinary Flying prices, allowing distributors to sell at a more measured pace, thus stabilizing market confidence [5] - The company expects the price of non-standard products to rise, with the 2015 Moutai potentially nearing 4000 RMB, while other products will not see price declines due to reduced supply [11] - Ordinary Flying is projected to maintain or even increase its supply, which is essential for the pricing stability of premium products [12] E-commerce and Special Channels - Moutai may designate large, compliant merchants in each province for online sales to address current e-commerce channel issues, aiming to improve the quality of online sales through official direct points [2][17] Investment and Collectibility - There remains a significant investment and collectibility demand for Moutai, particularly among elite consumers, with many indicating willingness to purchase if prices drop below 2000 RMB [20] Price Predictions - Moutai prices are expected to rise to between 1650 and 1700 RMB by the end of December, with a potential decrease in January due to increased supply, but still expected to remain above 1600 RMB [21] Conclusion - Moutai's strategic shift towards stabilizing prices and managing distributor relationships is aimed at fostering long-term growth while maintaining market confidence. The focus on restructuring product lines and optimizing distribution channels is expected to enhance overall performance and market stability moving forward [4][26]