海底捞：中国餐饮行业首选买入标的，30 天积极催化因素观察

Summary of Haidilao International Holding Ltd (6862.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Haidilao International Holding Ltd - Industry: Casual Dining in the Restaurant Sector, China Key Points and Arguments Industry Context - The Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) emphasized plans to "eliminate unreasonable restrictions on consumption and boost service consumption" as a priority for 2026E, which is expected to benefit casual dining players like Haidilao more than quick-service restaurants (QSRs) [1][8] Operational Performance - Haidilao experienced flat year-over-year (YoY) table-turn in November, with a slight deceleration in recovery compared to October due to fewer holidays [4] - The company opened 9 directly-operated and 4 franchised stores while closing 14 stores in November [4] - Management anticipates "less pressure" on table-turn in 4Q25E due to seasonally cold weather and a low comparison base from 4Q [4] - A late Chinese New Year (CNY) in 2026E is expected to provide a longer holiday period, positively impacting table-turn in 1Q26E [4] Margin and Cost Management - Gross Profit Margin (GPM) improved sequentially in 3Q25 compared to 1H25, reaching 60.2%, aided by menu optimization and lower labor costs [6] - Management plans to terminate several loss-making pilot programs in 1Q26E, which is expected to yield operational expense (opex) savings in 2026E [6][10] Store Remodeling and Sales Growth - Remodeled stores have contributed to sales boosts, particularly in new scenarios such as nightlife and family gatherings [5] - Average Selling Price (ASP) for dine-in grew slightly in 3Q25, driven by a higher mix of premium items [5] - Delivery sales grew approximately 100% YoY in 3Q25, with expectations of reaching around RMB 2 billion in delivery sales for the full year 2025E [5] Valuation and Target Price - The target price for Haidilao is set at HK$18.50, based on a valuation of 12x 2025E EV/adjusted EBITDA, aligning with the trading average of global restaurant peers [9] Risks and Opportunities - Downside Risks: Include lack of ownership of the "Haidilao" brand, potential consumption slowdown in China, and intensified competition [10] - Upside Risks: Include quicker-than-expected new store ramp-up and lower-than-expected commodity and labor inflation [10] Investment Recommendation - Haidilao is rated as a "Top Buy" in the China restaurant industry, with a 30-Day Positive Catalyst Watch initiated due to expected easing of government restrictions in 2026E [1][8] Additional Important Information - The expected share price return is 32.0%, with a total expected return of 33.8% including a dividend yield of 1.9% [2] - Market capitalization is approximately HK$78,147 million (US$10,042 million) [2]