博通：业绩势头延续，预期上调，忽略噪音干扰

Summary of Broadcom Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) - Sector: Semiconductors - Current Price: $406.37 USD - Price Objective: $500.00 USD - Market Valuation: $1,942,449 million USD Key Points Financial Performance and Estimates - Earnings Per Share (EPS): FY26/27E EPS raised by 8% to $10.33 and $14.40 respectively [1][5] - Revenue Estimates: FY26E revenue increased from $88,325.7 million to $98,946.2 million, and FY27E from $120,200.7 million to $135,541.3 million [5][17] - Gross Margin (GM): Adjusted FY26/27E GM to 73% and 71% respectively, down from 75.4% and 73.6% [1] - Free Cash Flow (FCF): Continues to generate over $7 billion per quarter, supporting potential M&A activities [2] Customer and Market Dynamics - Customer Base Expansion: Confirmed Anthropic as the 4th customer with an additional $11 billion in orders, totaling $21 billion for late-CY26 delivery [2] - Potential 5th Customer: Speculated to be Apple, which has a history of long-term agreements with Broadcom [16] - AI Backlog: Current AI backlog stands at $73 billion, with management suggesting potential sales of $50 billion to $100 billion in FY26/27 [1] Risks and Challenges - Competition: Concerns regarding Google potentially internalizing design content and competition from MediaTek for TPUv8e, which could reduce Broadcom's addressable market [3] - Gross Margin Pressure: The first rack-scale solution for Anthropic may have a significantly lower GM (~50%) compared to traditional products [3] Valuation Metrics - P/E Ratio: Current P/E ratio at 33x CY26, compared to Nvidia's 24x, marking the widest gap historically [1] - Return on Equity (ROE): Projected ROE for 2026E at 54.1% [6][8] - Dividend Yield: Expected to increase from 0.6% in 2026E to 0.8% in 2028E [4] Operational Insights - Operating Margin: Expected to maintain a steady operating margin around 64.5% to 65.5% over the next few years [8] - Cash Position: Total cash increased significantly to $16,178 million in Q4 2025, reflecting a 50.9% QoQ growth [22] Summary of Changes - Sales and EPS Changes: FY26E sales increased by 12% and EPS by 8%, reflecting strong growth expectations [17] - Quarterly Guidance: Provided guidance for Q1 2026 sales above consensus, indicating continued strong performance [20] Conclusion Broadcom Inc. demonstrates robust financial health with significant growth in revenue and EPS estimates, a broadening customer base, and strong free cash flow generation. However, it faces competitive pressures and potential margin challenges that investors should monitor closely. The company's strategic positioning in the semiconductor sector, particularly in AI and custom ASICs, remains a key driver for future growth.