Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Real Estate - Focus: Chinese mainland and Hong Kong real estate markets - Outlook for 2026: The industry is expected to explore new development models under strong policy support, despite facing challenges. Structural opportunities from "good houses" and "good cities" are emerging [1][6][10]. Core Insights and Arguments Chinese Mainland Real Estate - Sales Forecast: The total sales area of commercial housing in China is projected to be between 900 million to 950 million square meters in 2026, down from approximately 970 million square meters in 2024. The expected sales amount is around 10 to 11 trillion RMB, including 8 to 9 trillion RMB from residential sales [1][11]. - Investment Preference: The preferred investment ranking is as follows: state-owned enterprises (SOEs) or SOE-backed developers > leading private enterprises with land reserves in first and second-tier cities > other private developers [1][26]. - Market Dynamics: The market is transitioning from quantity expansion to quality improvement, with a focus on "good housing" standards. The demand is shifting towards improvement-type housing, which is expected to dominate the market [10][13]. Hong Kong Real Estate - Market Recovery: Key catalysts for recovery include improved macroeconomic uncertainty (notably interest rate cuts), significant policy easing, and a return of fundamental demand drivers. The recovery is expected to be gradual, with residential properties leading the way, followed by quality retail assets and core office spaces [3][37]. - Rental Growth: Residential rents are expected to increase by approximately 3% in 2026, with small to medium-sized unit prices rising by 5%. The retail sector is also anticipated to see moderate growth due to stabilizing local consumption and increased tourist arrivals [3][39]. - Investment Strategy: Investors are advised to focus on residential recovery as a high-quality proxy, particularly in the context of the anticipated market rebound [3][37]. Additional Important Insights - Policy Environment: The current policy framework is expected to remain supportive, with a focus on maintaining a stable demand-side policy and normalizing supply-side regulations. The emphasis is on improving housing quality and service standards [10][12]. - Market Segmentation: The market is experiencing significant segmentation, with first and second-tier cities showing resilience while third and fourth-tier cities face structural adjustments. The share of sales in first and strong second-tier cities is expected to increase from 30% to 35-40% by 2026 [12][15]. - Supply Dynamics: New construction is projected to be between 550 million to 600 million square meters in 2026, reflecting cautious market expectations and cash flow conditions among developers. This is expected to help digest existing inventory levels [21][22]. - Financial Health of Developers: The industry is shifting towards a focus on cash flow management, with a significant emphasis on achieving positive operating cash flow as a key indicator of operational capability. Developers with strong cash flow management are likely to be favored by the market [24][25]. Conclusion The real estate industry in both the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong is at a pivotal point, with emerging opportunities driven by policy support and changing market dynamics. Investors are encouraged to adopt a selective approach, focusing on quality and location to capitalize on the anticipated recovery in the sector [25][26].
交银国际_房地产行业：2026年展望，在新平衡中拥抱拐点与复苏_