Summary of Key Points from the Expert Call on IEA's World Energy Outlook 2025 Industry Overview - The discussion focused on the Global Oil and Gas industry, particularly insights from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2025 [1] Core Insights 1. Rising Electrification and Energy Demand - Incremental energy demand growth over the next decade is expected to primarily come from emerging markets outside of China - Key demand drivers include the expanding car fleet, plastic production, air-conditioning uptake, and rapid data center build-out - Electricity demand is accelerating globally, with low-emissions generation expanding faster than electricity demand, especially in Asia - Renewables, particularly solar PV, are growing rapidly, while nuclear energy is regaining momentum, and natural gas usage is increasing - Coal demand is projected to peak by 2030 before declining, highlighting the need for dispatchable capacity and enhanced power system flexibility [2] 2. Diverging Pathways for Oil Demand in Road Transport - The WEO 2025 presents differing oil demand projections under the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) and Stated Policies Scenarios (STEPS) - Under CPS, oil demand is expected to grow until 2050, while STEPS indicates demand will flatten by 2030, later than previous forecasts - The divergence is attributed to the transport sector outside China, with CPS assuming lower global electric vehicle (EV) uptake (43% by 2040) compared to STEPS (55% by 2040) - The IEA assumes an EU internal combustion engine (ICE) ban in 2035, which could impact both scenarios if pushed back to 2040 - The agency updates key cost components annually to reflect declining trends in EV prices and other inputs [3] 3. Natural Gas and Coal Dynamics - Significant changes in natural gas and coal dynamics were noted, reflecting shifts in power sector policies, including reduced renewable incentives and improved LNG competitiveness - Global long-term energy demand is expected to plateau, with regional and fuel-specific variations - In the STEPS scenario, global natural gas demand is projected to peak after 2030, while some Southeast Asian markets may not reach a peak - Gas demand uncertainty is linked to the power sector, particularly the extent of coal-to-gas switching versus direct renewable adoption - An oversupplied LNG market is anticipated to lower prices, stimulating demand in Asia [4] Additional Important Points - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the risks associated with oil and natural gas price volatility, refining margins, and exploration risks [6] - The document includes disclaimers regarding the potential conflicts of interest and the independence of UBS's research products [7][36] - The report is intended for professional clients and does not constitute investment advice [27][50]
全球油气-专家电话会反馈：IEA《2025 年世界能源展望》-Global Oil and Gas_ Expert call feedback - IEA‘s WEO 2025