中免大涨，免税板块更新

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes focus on the duty-free industry in Hainan, particularly the performance of China Duty Free Group (中免集团) and the impact of recent policies on sales growth in the region [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments - Sales Performance: Hainan's duty-free sales saw a decline in early 2025 but began to recover from September, with October and November showing year-on-year growth rates of 11% and 13% respectively. China Duty Free Group outperformed the market, achieving growth rates of 16% and 29% in October and November [1][4][5]. - Driving Factors: The growth in sales is primarily driven by an increase in average transaction value, which rose over 30% year-on-year in October, particularly for high-ticket items like Apple phones and gold [1][6]. - Impact of Closure Policy: The closure policy implemented on December 18 significantly boosted sales, with daily sales exceeding 250 million yuan on the first day, marking a 90% increase year-on-year. The following days also saw substantial growth, indicating a strong consumer response [1][7]. - Tourism and Business Travel: Post-closure, there was a notable increase in both tourism and business travel. Flight bookings to Sanya for New Year’s saw a 51% increase, while bookings for the Spring Festival surged by 80% and 130% for Sanya and Haikou respectively [1][8]. - Consumer Incentives: The introduction of consumer vouchers, including general and islander-specific discounts, has effectively increased shopping conversion rates and average transaction values. For instance, a new store achieved a 38% increase in sales by the end of December due to these incentives [1][10]. - Business Strategy Changes: China Duty Free Group has completed the divestiture of its real estate business to focus on its core operations in the Greater Bay Area, particularly in high-margin tobacco and cosmetics. This strategic shift is expected to enhance profitability and stability [1][11]. Additional Important Information - Market Share: The growth trends indicate an increase in market share for China Duty Free Group in Hainan, reflecting its competitive positioning in the duty-free sector [1][5]. - Future Outlook: The current environment suggests that there is significant potential for further growth in the duty-free market, driven by favorable policies and consumer behavior [3]. - Valuation and Investment Potential: The valuation of the subsidiary in Zhuhai is currently below 20 times earnings, presenting a clear investment opportunity for enhancing profitability [1][11].