永鼎股份20251222

Summary of the Conference Call for Yongding Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - Global Fiber Demand: Significant growth in global fiber demand is expected in 2025, with domestic non-operator market prices for ordinary fiber rising from 15-16 RMB at the beginning of the year to 20-22 RMB by year-end, driven mainly by data center and trunk fiber network construction in mainland China [2][4]. - Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War: The war has greatly increased demand for fiber drones, which is expected to remain high even if hostilities cease, as military stockpiles will likely retain a certain number of these drones, leading to stable long-term demand [2][6][10]. Company Performance - Yongding's Revenue and Profit: In 2025, Yongding Co., Ltd. exceeded expectations in revenue and profit within the rod and cable sector, increasing production capacity from 300 tons at the beginning of the year to approximately 450 tons by December, with plans for further increases in 2026 [2][7]. - Product Development: Multi-mode fiber has been successfully developed and is in small-scale commercial use, while hollow fiber and 654B fiber are expected to undergo testing in Q1 2026 [2][7]. Price and Supply Forecast - Price Predictions: Ordinary non-operator fiber prices are expected to increase by 10%-20% in 2026, potentially reaching 23-25 RMB. Other product types, including A2 fiber, are also anticipated to see price increases [2][8][21]. - Supply Chain Recovery: The recovery of supply chains is cautiously optimistic, with slow recovery of production capacity from competitors like Futong and European brands seeking OEM partnerships in China [2][8]. Product Capacity and Competition - Capacity Utilization: Different types of fibers impact overall capacity differently. For instance, producing 654B fiber consumes more raw materials, leading to actual usable capacity being less than theoretical values. The demand for drone-related products has created competitive pressure on existing systems [2][9]. - Tight Supply Conditions: The supply of 657A2 and multi-mode fibers is under pressure due to competition from data centers and drones, with factory orders currently extending to 45 days [3][11][17]. Technological Developments - Laser Chip Expansion: Yongding has established a presence in the optoelectronics sector with laser chips and plans to expand production capacity significantly, with expectations of reaching tens of millions of effective chips supplied in 2026 [3][22][29]. - Future Trends in Optical Communication: The optical communication industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by AI, with increasing demand for optical modules and tight supply of optical chips. New technologies are expected to further propel market growth [28]. Challenges and Market Dynamics - International Market Entry: Domestic companies face challenges entering overseas markets, particularly in North America, where demand is surging. Some companies are using indirect trade routes to access these markets [19]. - Price Differences: There are significant price differences between domestic and international brands, with international brands like Corning charging substantially more for their products [13][14]. Conclusion Yongding Co., Ltd. is well-positioned for growth in the optical fiber and laser chip markets, with strong demand driven by technological advancements and geopolitical factors. The company’s strategic plans for capacity expansion and product development indicate a positive outlook for the coming years.