Summary of Sanhua Intelligent Controls Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ) - Industry: HVAC control and thermal management components Key Financial Highlights - FY25 Pre-announcement: Sanhua expects net income between Rmb3,874 million and Rmb4,649 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 25%-50% [1] - 4Q25 Net Profit: Expected to be between Rmb634 million and Rmb1,406 million, indicating a year-over-year change of -21% to +76% [1] Growth Expectations - Growth Moderation: Anticipated growth moderation in the main business for the next two quarters, with a stable outlook for FY26 [2] - HVAC Segment: Continued growth pressure expected due to a high base, but potential improvement anticipated in 2026 due to likely trade-in policy extensions [5] - EV Component Segment: Revenue growth forecast remains unchanged at +12% for 4Q25, +12% for 1Q26, and +15% for 2Q26 [5] Customer Insights - Tesla: Represents approximately 25%-30% of the EV component segment revenue, with 4Q25 delivery forecast at 445K units, a 10% year-over-year decline [5] - BYD: Accounts for about 15%-20% of segment revenue; management expresses confidence in long-term overseas expansion despite demand uncertainty in China [5] Valuation and Price Target - Target Price: Rmb40.90 for Sanhua A shares and HK$43.10 for Sanhua H shares, based on a 2030E P/E of 25x, discounted back to 2026E with a cost of equity of 9.5% [9] - Current Share Prices: Rmb45.42 for Sanhua A and HK$35.42 for Sanhua H, indicating a downside of 10% for A shares and an upside of 21.7% for H shares [12] Investment Thesis - Growth Potential: Expected revenue and net profit CAGR of 18% from 2025 to 2030 [11] - Market Position: Strong position in HVAC and potential growth in humanoid robot actuators [11] - Risks: Key risks include slower-than-expected revenue from humanoid robots, global EV sales, and home appliance sales [10][11] Additional Insights - Valuation Comparison: Sanhua H shares have seen a price movement of -14% compared to the Hang Seng Index, while A shares have moved -9% compared to the CSI300 [8] - Tesla Optimus Gen3: Performance of this product is crucial for further upside in share price, with the next performance check expected in February/March 2026 [8] Conclusion Sanhua Intelligent Controls is positioned for growth in the HVAC and EV segments, with a stable outlook for FY26 despite anticipated short-term growth moderation. The company’s valuation appears attractive relative to its growth potential, but risks remain that could impact future performance.
三花智控_2025 财年预告符合预期；预计未来两季度增长放缓