Summary of the Conference Call for Xiaoming Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The poultry industry is currently experiencing fluctuations due to factors such as avian influenza and market dynamics affecting chick prices and egg supply. [2][3] Key Points and Arguments Chick Prices and Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, chick prices surged due to supply constraints caused by avian influenza, leading to strong performance for Xiaoming Co., Ltd. in the first three quarters. However, a decline in egg prices in the second half of 2025 has resulted in a drop in chick prices. [2][3] - A supply gap for quality chicks remains, and it is anticipated that chick prices will rebound once the downstream egg market stabilizes. [2][3] Supply and Demand Forecast - The supply of eggs is expected to be sufficient in the first half of 2026, with improvements in market conditions anticipated in the second half. The highest expected price for eggs is around 4 RMB, unlikely to exceed 4.5 RMB. [2][6] - In the second half of 2026, a decrease in the number of laying hens is expected, which may lead to an increase in egg prices, although the increase may not exceed 10 RMB. [7] Chick Production and Cost Control - Xiaoming Co., Ltd. has introduced 45,000 Hy-Line breeding hens from France, which are expected to have improved disease resistance compared to previous imports from the U.S. [4] - The company’s cost control in chick production relies on economies of scale, with costs decreasing as sales volume increases. Costs are approximately 3.2 RMB for sales of 18-20 million chicks, dropping to around 2.8 RMB for sales exceeding 23 million. [10] Industry Trends and Competition - Large-scale farms like Zhengda and Deqingyuan can sustain operations despite losses due to brand egg sales covering costs, while smaller farms are facing severe losses and are likely to exit the market, leading to further industry consolidation. [9][12] - The current market structure shows that large-scale farms account for less than 20% of the total, but this is expected to evolve to 40% in the future, enhancing industry consolidation. [12] Sales and Market Share Goals - Xiaoming Co., Ltd. aims to maintain a target of 350 million chicks and a 30% market share, with plans to increase production from 235 million in 2024 to 290 million by 2026. [14] - Current orders show a completion rate of about 70% for January and 46% for February, with an upward trend in order prices expected to exceed 3.5 RMB per chick by March. [13] Youth Chicken Profitability - The profitability of young chickens is expected to remain flat or slightly negative in 2025, with a projected profit of 1 to 1.5 RMB per chick if market conditions improve in 2026. [15][16] Disease Impact on Supply - Winter diseases, particularly infectious bronchitis, are anticipated to impact supply, potentially reducing it by about 10%. [17] Strategic Planning and Market Expansion - The company has set ambitious goals for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, including expanding into emerging markets in Africa and Central Asia, focusing on brand promotion and food safety standards. [18][19] Additional Important Information - The industry is witnessing a trend towards larger, more efficient operations, with smaller farms struggling to compete. This could lead to a significant shift in market dynamics and pricing strategies in the coming years. [9][12]
晓鸣股份20151223