全球数据_中国关税后的出口多元化程度超预期-GDW Asia_ China‘s post-tariff export diversification is broader than presumed

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's Global Data Watch: Asia Industry Overview - Industry: Chinese Export Market - Context: Analysis of China's export diversification post-US tariffs Core Insights 1. Export Growth: Despite US tariffs averaging ~32%, China's goods exports grew by 5% in 2025, consistent with the previous year's growth [1][11] 2. Redirection of Exports: China's direct export share to the US decreased by one-third in 2025, from 15% to 10%, leading to a redirection of exports to other markets [1][11] 3. Broader Diversification: The decline in US export share was offset by increases in market share across Africa, Asia, and Europe, indicating a broader diversification than previously assumed [1][11] 4. Impact on Domestic Manufacturing: Increased Chinese exports are creating pressures on local manufacturing sectors in Asia, evidenced by rising trade barriers on Chinese imports [1][11] 5. ASEAN Economies: ASEAN countries, due to strong economic ties with China, are unlikely to push back against increased Chinese imports despite the pressures on their manufacturing bases [1][11] Additional Important Points 1. Economic Ties: The strong economic connections between ASEAN economies and China as a source of foreign direct investment (FDI) and as an export market are highlighted [1][11] 2. Trade Barriers: The increase in trade barriers on Chinese imports suggests a growing concern among Asian countries regarding the impact of Chinese exports on their local industries [1][11] 3. Long-term Trends: The increase in exports to Asia reflects a secular rise over the last decade, with shipments to Asia now making up almost a third of China's export basket [1][11] Economic Forecasts 1. China's GDP Forecast: The 4Q GDP forecast for China is maintained at 3.0% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) or 4.2% year-on-year (yoy) for 2025, with net exports contributing 1.4 percentage points [11][12] 2. Fiscal Spending: Year-to-date fiscal deposits are elevated at 2.04 trillion yuan, indicating weak fiscal spending, which may lead to higher unused funds carrying over into the next year [12][11] This summary encapsulates the key insights and implications regarding China's export dynamics and its impact on regional economies, particularly in the context of ongoing trade tensions and economic forecasts.