Summary of Youran Dairy (9858.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - Youran Dairy is a leading player in the dairy industry, recognized as the largest raw milk provider globally in terms of dairy cow herd size and production volume as of 2020. The company was spun off from Yili and went public in Hong Kong in June 2021 [28][29]. Industry Context - EU Dairy Product Tariff: China has imposed provisional duties of 21.9-42.7% on certain EU dairy products, effective December 23, 2025. This primarily affects cheese and whipping cream, which constitute 20.7% of EU's market share in China [1][2]. - Impact on Imports: The EU accounted for 28.3% of China's dairy product imports in the first ten months of 2025, with cheese and whipping cream making up 9.1% and 1.6% of imports by raw milk equivalent volume [2][11]. Key Insights - Raw Milk Oversupply: China's raw milk supply has seen a surplus of 1-2 million tons in 2025, down from 3-4 million tons in 2024. The targeted EU dairy products import is estimated to be equivalent to ~0.8 million tons of raw milk, which could be replaced by domestic production, thus alleviating oversupply [3][17]. - Domestic Demand for Solid Dairy Products: The demand for deep-processed solid dairy products like whey, cheese, and butter has been growing, driven by high-end bakery and catering sectors. In 2024, China imported about 1 million tons of these products, with continued growth observed in 2025 [4][17]. - Youran's Customer Development: Youran's major customer, Yili, has established a solid dairy product production line with a daily capacity of 600 tons, which could substitute 15% of raw milk equivalent import volume at full utilization [4]. Financial Performance - Earnings Summary: - 2023: Net Profit -739 million RMB, Diluted EPS -0.195 RMB - 2024: Net Profit -691 million RMB, Diluted EPS -0.180 RMB - 2025E: Net Profit 541 million RMB, Diluted EPS 0.141 RMB (growth of 178.2%) [5][10]. - Valuation Metrics: - P/E ratio for 2025E is projected at 30.6, with a P/B ratio of 1.4 and ROE of 4.7% [5][10]. Market Outlook - Target Price and Return: The target price for Youran Dairy is set at HK$5.40, indicating an expected share price return of 13.2% [6][10]. - Market Capitalization: Youran Dairy's market cap is approximately HK$18.568 billion (US$2.387 billion) [6][10]. Risks and Considerations - Key Risks: Potential risks include lower-than-expected raw milk prices, reliance on the business performance of key customers, disease outbreaks at dairy farms, trade frictions affecting forage imports, and food safety issues [31]. Conclusion - Youran Dairy is positioned to benefit from the structural changes in the dairy market due to the EU tariff, which may enhance domestic raw milk demand. The company's strategic developments in solid dairy products and its strong market position suggest a positive outlook for future growth.
优然牧业_欧盟乳制品关税的影响分析