重庆啤酒20260105

Summary of the Conference Call for Chongqing Beer (2025) Industry Overview - The beer industry is experiencing a shift towards non-consumption channels, with companies actively developing these avenues due to weak performance in on-premise sales [2][3][4]. Key Points Company Initiatives - Carlsberg China is launching new products in 2025, including special packaging for the Spring Festival and commemorative cans for Liverpool's UEFA Champions League victory [2][3]. - The company is exploring new product categories beyond beer, such as energy drinks and carbonated beverages [2][3]. - The non-consumption channel is projected to account for approximately 56%-57% of overall sales in 2025, maintaining a stable share compared to previous years [2][6]. Sales Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, premium product sales showed growth, with Carlsberg and Fenghua Xueyue brands achieving double-digit growth [2][5]. - The company’s filling rate is expected to increase from 18%-19% in 2023 to around 29% by the end of 2025, with a target to reach the industry average of 35%-40% in the future [2][7]. Regional Market Insights - The Xinjiang market is performing well, driven by tourism and optimized brand structure for the Wusu brand [2][10]. - However, the Chongqing and Yunnan regions have seen a decline due to external environmental factors, although the Fenghua Xueyue brand has performed well in traditional and low-alcohol beer segments [2][10][11]. Cost and Profitability - The company anticipates a cautious outlook for gross margins due to rising aluminum can prices and a slower decline in raw material costs [3][18]. - The effective tax rate has increased from 19-20% in 2024 to nearly 24% in the first three quarters of 2025, with expectations to maintain this level in 2025 and 2026 [3][17]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue focusing on non-consumption channels and product innovation, with collaborations with platforms like JD.com and Waimai Songjiu for customized products [3][14][15]. - A stable high dividend policy will be maintained, reflecting the company's commitment to shareholder returns [3][19]. Additional Considerations - The company is not considering outsourcing production but prefers to maintain brand integrity through customized product offerings [3][15]. - The impact of a one-time litigation cost from the previous year is expected to affect net profit by approximately 10 million to over 9 million [3][16]. - Preparations for the Spring Festival include launching new promotional products and marketing campaigns [3][20].