汇川技术-12 月工业自动化订单同比增长超 30%，全年进度符合指引

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - Company: Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. (300124.SZ) - Industry: Industrial Automation Key Points and Arguments Inovance Technology - Inovance reported a 30%+ year-over-year (yoy) growth in industrial automation (IA) segment orders for December 2025, an improvement from 20%+ yoy in November 2025 [1][6] - The strong order trend in December suggests an implied 20%+ yoy growth in 4Q25 orders, exceeding the revenue forecast of +17% yoy [1] - The full-year 2025 IA orders are on track to achieve +20% yoy growth, aligning with company guidance and the revenue forecast of +19% yoy [1] - The improvement in orders from November to December may not be fully reflected in 4Q25 results due to a 1-2 month order lead-time [1] Haitian International - Haitian International (1882.HK) also reported double-digit yoy growth in overall orders for December, with domestic orders likely exceeding 20% yoy and overseas orders in the teens [2] - The implied 4Q25 orders for Haitian showed 10% yoy growth, with domestic orders at high single digits and overseas at up teens [2] - For the full year 2025, Haitian's orders are expected to show high single-digit yoy growth, consistent with a revenue forecast of +9% yoy [2] - Management attributed the strength in domestic orders to potential distributor incentives at year-end [2] Additional Insights - The overall positive sentiment for December orders is noted, with both Inovance and Haitian International potentially outperforming broader macroeconomic and manufacturing capital expenditure trends [1] - The competitive advantages of Inovance include: - Leading market positions in key products (inverter/servo) with 25%/34% market share in China as of 1H25 - Opportunities for market share gains in small/large PLCs, aiding in digitalization and IoT transformation [16] - Growth in EV components and digitalization business development, which may exceed expectations [16] - Inovance's resilience is supported by: - Industry-leading R&D effectiveness and high success rates for new products - A comprehensive product portfolio that increases customer switching costs [18] Risks and Valuation - The 12-month price target for Inovance is set at Rmb82.1, based on a 35x 2026E P/E [19] - Downside risks include: - Slower-than-expected market share gains in industrial automation - Weaker-than-expected margin trends - Delays in the ramp-up of the EV component segment - General slowdown in manufacturing capital expenditure and automation demand [19]