益生股份20260107

Summary of the Conference Call for Yisheng Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The poultry industry is currently facing challenges due to high pathogenic avian influenza, particularly affecting the importation of grandparent breeding chickens from France, which has been suspended since late January 2026. [2][4] - The impact of avian influenza has led to a reduction in the import volume of grandparent chickens by 10%, which may influence market supply and pricing dynamics for chicken and meat products. [3][19] Key Points and Arguments - Supply and Pricing Dynamics: - The price of parent breeding chickens has increased since September 2025, currently around 50 yuan, due to a significant import volume in 2025. [2][4] - In Q4 2025, Yisheng sold over 3.5 million sets of parent breeding chickens at an average price of over 33 yuan, and 162 million commercial chicks at an average price of 3.4 yuan. [9] - The price of commercial broilers reached a peak of 3.85 yuan per jin in December 2025, supported by rising meat prices and reduced supply. [11] - Impact of Diseases: - Seasonal diseases, particularly tumors and stress-related issues, are expected to affect breeding efficiency in 2026, especially in Shandong province, a major breeding area. [12] - Future Outlook: - The company anticipates focusing on parent breeding in the first half of 2026 and on commercial breeding in the second half, with expectations of improved market conditions compared to 2024. [13] - The recovery of pork prices is expected to drive up chicken and broiler prices in the latter half of 2026. [13] Additional Important Information - Capital Expenditure Plans: - Yisheng plans to increase parent breeding output from 7 million to 10 million sets and expand commercial chick exports from 600 million to 1 billion. The company also plans to invest approximately 500 million yuan in a residential project in Shanxi. [5][15] - Challenges in Importing: - The approval process for importing from other regions has become more stringent, with timelines extending to two to three months. Currently, there are no confirmed alternative sources for rapid imports. [6][7] - Dividend Expectations: - The company aims to provide returns to shareholders through dividends when conditions allow, though specific timing and amounts remain uncertain due to compliance issues. [16] - New Product Development: - Yisheng is actively developing its own egg-laying chicken breeds, with plans to promote a new American breed expected to receive certification in the first half of 2026. [18] - Market Position: - Yisheng was previously the largest grandparent breeding chicken company in China, with a strong market share. The introduction of new domestic breeds is expected to enhance competitiveness. [18][21] - Investment Recommendations: - Given the current valuation and growth potential, investors are encouraged to pay attention to the white chicken sector, particularly Yisheng, due to its profit elasticity and favorable market conditions. [20]