2026 年展望：偏好 AI 领域而非非 AI 领域；逻辑芯片与存储芯片均具吸引力-2026 Outlook Prefer AI to Non-AI; Both Logic and Memory Are Attractive

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry Focus: Semiconductor industry, particularly AI and memory sectors - Investment Outlook: Preference for AI-related investments over non-AI, with both logic and memory segments deemed attractive [5][8][74] Core Insights and Arguments - Top Investment Picks: - AI: TSMC (Top Pick), SMIC, Aspeed, MediaTek, Alchip, GUC, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, ASMPT, AllRing - Memory: Winbond (Top Pick), Phison, Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, Macronix [5] - Long-term Demand Drivers: - Tech Inflation: Anticipated price elasticity affecting demand for tech products, with rising costs in wafers, OSAT, and memory impacting margins for chip designers into 2026 [5] - AI Cannibalization: AI's potential to replace certain jobs may weaken demand, while the semiconductor supply chain is prioritizing AI semiconductors over non-AI [5] - Tech Diffusion: Reacceleration of AI semiconductor demand driven by generative AI, expanding into various sectors like robotics and AI glasses [5] - China AI Demand: DeepSeek's influence on inferencing AI demand raises questions about the sufficiency of domestic GPU supply [5] Financial Metrics and Valuation - Valuation Comparisons: - TSMC's target price is set at 1,888.0 TWD, indicating an 11% upside potential [6] - UMC's target price is 52.5 TWD, with a 0% upside [6] - SMIC's target price is 80.0 HKD, with a 5% upside [6] - P/E Ratios: - TSMC's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 26.1 in 2025 to 16.3 in 2027, indicating expected growth [6] - UMC's P/E ratio is relatively stable, while SMIC's is not measurable due to expected losses [6] Market Dynamics - Semiconductor Cycle: Logic semiconductor foundry utilization is at 70-80% in the first half of 2026, indicating a recovery phase [10] - Non-AI Semiconductor Growth: Excluding NVIDIA's AI GPU revenue, non-AI semiconductor growth was only 10% year-over-year in 2024 [12] - Memory Prices: Memory stock prices are seen as leading indicators for logic semiconductors, with an attractive industry view on global tech semiconductors [14] Additional Insights - AI Semiconductor Growth: TSMC's AI semiconductor revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 60% from 2024 to 2029 [25] - Cloud Capex: Major cloud service providers' capex is projected to reach nearly US$632 billion in 2026, indicating robust demand for cloud-related semiconductors [78] - NAND and NOR Flash Supply: Anticipated shortages in NAND and NOR flash memory due to increased demand from AI storage solutions [64][68] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the semiconductor industry's current landscape, investment opportunities, and financial metrics.