益生股份20260109

Summary of the Conference Call for Yisheng Livestock and Poultry Industry Overview - The poultry industry is currently facing challenges due to the impact of avian influenza in France, which is expected to keep the prices of parent stock chicks high in 2026. There is also potential for price increases in commercial chicks due to supply constraints caused by reduced imports and disruptions in new breed introductions since September 2025 [2][6][12]. Key Points Company Performance and Projections - Yisheng Livestock and Poultry accounted for over 40% of the national supply of grandparent stock chicks in 2025, indicating strong production capacity to meet sales targets for 2026. The expected sales volume for commercial egg chicks is around 1.6 billion [2][10]. - The company has implemented cost control measures, resulting in a parent stock cost of approximately 17 RMB and a commercial stock cost between 2.4 to 2.5 RMB [8][14]. - The company’s grandparent stock imports in 2025 were 266,000 sets, representing 43% of the national total, despite a 10% year-over-year decline in overall imports [4][22]. Market Dynamics - The domestic corn market is expected to have a loose supply-demand balance in 2026, while the soybean meal market is projected to be strong on the supply side but weak on demand. This overall stability is anticipated to have a limited impact on Yisheng's costs due to its upstream position in the supply chain [9]. - The price of parent stock chicks has been rising since September 2025, with current transaction prices exceeding 53 RMB. The expectation is that prices will continue to rise in 2026 due to supply constraints [7][12]. Export Trends - In 2025, China achieved its first year of chicken meat exports exceeding imports, with a nearly 40% year-over-year increase. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, supporting chicken prices [20]. - Chicken meat exports are primarily concentrated in high-demand international markets, with export prices generally higher than domestic prices due to limited supply [21]. Production Capacity and Future Plans - Yisheng currently has over 400,000 sets of grandparent stock and over 7 million sets of parent stock, operating at high capacity utilization. This positions the company well to meet the increased supply demands for 2026 [10]. - The company is also advancing in egg chicken research, with a new system showing over 90% egg production rate at 70 weeks, and plans to increase the scale of egg-type chicken output based on market conditions [10]. Challenges and Risks - The ongoing avian influenza situation in France poses a significant risk to supply chains, with no clear alternatives for sourcing from other countries like the U.S. or Europe [11]. - The supply of grandparent stock is currently insufficient to meet demand, with only about 60,000 sets available in the first four months of 2025, indicating a significant shortfall [22]. Conclusion Yisheng Livestock and Poultry is navigating a complex landscape influenced by avian influenza, supply chain challenges, and shifting market dynamics. The company is well-positioned to leverage its production capacity and market share, but must remain vigilant regarding external risks and market fluctuations.