英伟达-H200 上行空间，Vera Rubin 助力再跃升

Summary of NVIDIA (NVDA US) Company Report Company Overview - Company: NVIDIA (NVDA US) - Industry: Technology - Report Date: January 11, 2026 Key Points Investment Recommendation - Rating: Buy maintained - Target Price: Raised to $286 from $270, based on a 36x FY27 P/E ratio [3][19] Market Dynamics - Share Price Movement: NVDA's share price has decreased by 11% since its peak in November 2025 due to concerns over competition from Google and OpenAI, as well as fears of an AI bubble [3][4] - Investor Sentiment: Recent feedback indicates a reversal in sentiment, suggesting a preference for long positions in NVIDIA over Google and OpenAI [3][4] Product Demand and Supply Chain - H200 Demand: Significant demand for the H200 product is noted, with a shipment plan of approximately 1.5 million units, including 800,000 H200 packages expected in 2Q26 [5][6] - Supply Chain Developments: TSMC's CoWoS-S build plan has been increased by 30,000 units due to strong demand, with expectations of approval for H200 purchases in China [5] Financial Projections - Revenue Growth: Projected revenues for FY2026 are $215.3 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 65% [8][26] - Net Income: Expected net income for FY2026 is $115.8 billion, reflecting a 55.9% increase year-over-year [8][26] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is projected to be $4.72 for FY2026, with a growth rate of 0% for FY26 and 6% for FY27 [16][17] Competitive Landscape - Google's Gemini: Google DeepMind's VP highlighted the advantages of Gemini 3, which could impact NVIDIA's market position [4] - OpenAI's Developments: OpenAI is reportedly seeking up to $100 billion in funding, which may alleviate investor concerns regarding its financial stability [4] Product Performance - Vera Rubin: The new Vera Rubin architecture is expected to deliver 5x better inference performance and 3.5x training performance compared to the previous Blackwell architecture [6] - Market Positioning: NVIDIA's products are anticipated to outperform Google's TPU offerings, particularly in the context of AI competition [6] Risks - Identified Risks: 1. Geopolitical risks 2. Capital expenditure slowdown 3. Scaling slowdown 4. Product delays [7][23] Valuation Methodology - P/E Methodology: The valuation is based on a P/E ratio that is approximately 20% above its mid-cycle level, reflecting the ongoing AI trends and NVIDIA's leadership in the ecosystem [19][20] Financial Ratios - Gross Margin: Expected to be 71.3% in FY2026, with a slight decrease projected in subsequent years [17][26] - Return on Equity (ROE): Projected ROE for FY2026 is 83.1% [8][26] Conclusion - NVIDIA is positioned to capitalize on strong demand for its H200 product and the new Vera Rubin architecture, despite competitive pressures from Google and OpenAI. The financial outlook remains robust, with significant revenue and net income growth projected over the next few years. However, investors should remain cautious of geopolitical and market risks that could impact performance.