CATL(SZ:300750)2026-01-13 11:56Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Chinese Battery & Materials - The Chinese battery value chain experienced a pullback of 9-20% from its peak on November 13, attributed to profit-taking after a strong rally in 2025, where the sector rose by 20-180% compared to the CSI300's 18% increase [2][6] - Battery production is expected to see a moderate sequential decline in January 2026, but a strong growth of 35% year-over-year is anticipated for the full year [2][6] - Energy Storage Systems (ESS) production and shipments are expected to remain robust in January and the first quarter of 2026 [2][6] Company Insights: CATL - CATL is positioned to outperform tier-2 battery manufacturers, making it a top pick in China's battery supply chain for 2026 [2] - January 2026 production for major battery manufacturers is expected to decline by 7% month-over-month, with CATL anticipated to experience a smaller decline compared to its peers [6] - CATL's full-year 2026 sales volume is estimated at 830 GWh, representing a 33% increase year-over-year [6] Market Dynamics - The inflationary environment for battery materials is expected to persist into 2026, with significant price increases noted for key components such as lithium carbonate, copper foil processing fees, and electrolytes [8] - The lithium market is projected to remain tight in the first half of 2026, with prices potentially surging to Rmb150k/t before a buyer strike occurs [8] - Recommendations favor CATL as the cheapest battery stock globally, while tier-2 battery makers and material suppliers receive neutral or underweight ratings [8] Production Trends - NEV (New Energy Vehicle) sales in November 2025 were up 6% month-over-month, but December 2025 sales are estimated to decline by 8% month-over-month [11] - Battery production trends indicate a historical pattern where production typically declines in the first quarter, with expectations of a 30% quarter-over-quarter drop in passenger NEV demand [6][11] - The overall battery production for major manufacturers in FY25 was up over 50% year-over-year, driven by strong EV demand and policy stimulus in China [6] Future Outlook - Global EV and ESS battery shipments are projected to grow by approximately 30% in 2026, reaching 2.6 TWh, with ESS demand being the primary growth driver at 47% year-over-year [7] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to be another strong quarter for ESS battery production, with no decline anticipated compared to the previous quarter [6] Conclusion - The Chinese battery industry is navigating through a period of seasonal adjustments and inflationary pressures, with CATL positioned favorably for growth amidst these challenges. The outlook for 2026 remains positive, particularly for ESS demand, despite anticipated declines in NEV sales and production in the early part of the year [2][6][8]