Megmeet(SZ:002851)2026-01-14 05:05Summary of Megmeet (002851.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Megmeet Electric Co., Ltd. - Founded: 2003 - Listed: 2017 - Market Share: 3% in global embedded power supply market as of 2024 - Key Competitors: Delta Electronics, Lite-On - Recent Performance: Share price increased by 260% since October 2024 due to recognition as an NVIDIA MGX ecosystem partner [21][30] Key Industry Insights - Transition: Megmeet is shifting from automation and control to becoming a global player in AI server power supply [1] - Market Potential: Expected to capture 5% of the global AI server power supply market by 2030, with 8% in custom ASIC supply chains and 3% within the NVIDIA ecosystem [22][39] - Growth Forecast: Anticipated total sales CAGR of 28% from 2025 to 2030, primarily driven by server power supply breakthroughs [10][29] Core Investment Debates 1. Market Share Potential - Forecast: 5% global market share by 2030, with a focus on custom ASICs [22][39] - NVIDIA Ecosystem: Positioned as a secondary supplier to mitigate risks associated with single suppliers [22][39] - 800V DC Architecture: Transition starting in 2027 may favor established players due to reliability and trust [22][39] 2. Valuation Check - Current Valuation: Trading at 79x 12-month forward P/E, higher than the average of 72x since October 2024 [2][23] - Earnings Forecast: Projected earnings CAGR of 58% from 2025 to 2030, but 6-19% below consensus for 2025-2027 due to manufacturing challenges [2][26] 3. R&D and Product Cycle - Product Gaps: Significant gap in high-efficiency product portfolio compared to tier-1 peers [3][24] - Competition: Increasing entrants in the market may intensify competition for next-gen products [3][24] - Monitoring: Close observation of product iterations and customer validation is essential [3][24] Financials & Valuation - Target Price: Set at Rmb 86.8, implying a 14% downside from current levels [4][26] - Long-Term Growth: Expected 27% LT earnings CAGR from 2028 to 2030 [4][26] - Risk-Reward Profile: Balanced, with upside potential contingent on faster order wins and production [4][26] Additional Insights - R&D Focus: Higher percentage of sales allocated to R&D compared to global peers, though absolute expenditure remains small [30][36] - Capital Expansion: Plans to raise Rmb 2.7 billion for production upgrades, particularly in Thailand [48][49] - Management Team: Experienced leadership with backgrounds in major companies like Huawei and Emerson [30][35] Conclusion - Investment Outlook: While Megmeet shows potential for growth in the AI server power supply market, challenges in execution and competition must be closely monitored. The current valuation reflects optimistic market share expectations that may not align with projected growth rates.