半导体设备：台积电业绩的联动影响-资本开支指引强劲利好半导体设备厂商_ Semiconductor Capital Equipment_ TSMC results read-across_ Stronger capex guidance positive for SPE makers

Summary of TSMC Earnings Call and Implications for Japanese SPE Makers Company and Industry Overview - Company: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - Industry: Semiconductor Capital Equipment (SPE) Key Points from the Earnings Call Current Business Environment - TSMC highlighted that AI demand is the primary driver of semiconductor demand growth, with major customers starting to see tangible earnings contributions from AI investments [2][4] - The company revised its 5-year outlook for AI-related sales to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of mid- to high-50%, an increase from the previous mid-40% CAGR forecast [2] Capital Expenditure (Capex) Outlook - TSMC's capex for 2025 is projected at US$40.9 billion, with US$11.5 billion allocated for the fourth quarter, exceeding the previous guidance of US$40 billion to US$42 billion [3] - For 2026, TSMC anticipates capex between US$52 billion and US$56 billion, with 70-80% allocated for advanced processes, 10% for specialty processes, and 10-20% for advanced packaging and other applications [3] - The company is accelerating capacity expansion in Taiwan and the US due to strong demand, indicating that cumulative capex over the next three years could significantly exceed the US$101 billion invested in the past three years [3] Implications for Japanese SPE Makers - The 2026 capex guidance of US$52 billion to US$56 billion surpasses both internal forecasts of US$46 billion and investor expectations of around US$50 billion, which is seen as positive for various SPE companies, particularly those with high sales exposure to TSMC [4] - Specific recommendations include maintaining Buy ratings on companies such as Ebara, Disco, and Tokyo Electron, which are expected to benefit from the increased capex focused on advanced processes and packaging [4] Additional Important Information - The earnings call reflects a strong outlook for the semiconductor industry, particularly driven by AI demand, which may lead to increased investment opportunities in related sectors [2][4] - The capex figures indicate a robust commitment from TSMC to expand its capabilities, which could have a ripple effect on suppliers and related industries, particularly in Japan [3][4]