2026光通信-四小龙3

Summary of Conference Call on Optical Communication Industry Industry Overview - The optical communication industry is expected to see continued positive performance in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, driven by tight supply of upstream components such as isolators, optical chips, and DSPs, which will be reflected in the 2027 quarterly reports, benefiting leading companies with guaranteed supply [1][3] - Supply tightness may accelerate the application of new technologies like silicon photonics, LPO, and NPO to mitigate shortages and meet market demand [1][3] Key Companies to Watch - Recommended small companies include: - Dongtian Micro: Focused on isolator products, currently facing high demand due to supply shortages [6] - Kechuan Technology: Specializes in silicon photonic chips (PIC), which hold significant value in the supply chain [6] - Huilv Ecology: Acts as an overseas foundry and has made breakthroughs in the domestic market [6] - Zhishang Technology: Provides CPU connection solutions and is involved in production for Nvidia [6] Market Dynamics - The optical communication sector is characterized by reasonable valuations and strong competitiveness, with many companies expected to report growth rates exceeding 50% in the upcoming 2025 annual performance reports, which will enhance market confidence [1][5] - The overall performance of the optical communication sector is anticipated to improve as market risk appetite shifts towards performance and industry trends [3] Investment Recommendations - Investors should focus on leading companies with strong supply chain security, such as Xinyi Sheng, which has confirmed no supply chain issues and is ramping up production of its 1.6T products [7] - Emphasis should be placed on companies with valuation advantages and high growth expectations [7] Future Outlook - Domestic computing power is projected to achieve a year-on-year growth of 50%, although expectations for Q4 performance should be tempered [10] - The release of the H200 is not expected to significantly impact domestic upstream procurement, with larger companies gradually delivering and achieving performance while smaller firms may struggle [9] Regulatory Environment - The current regulatory environment favors companies with strong performance and core technologies, such as industrial leaders and optical module firms, which are suitable for long-term investment [2][11]