胜宏科技-2025 年第四季度净利润指引不及预期

Summary of Victory Giant Tech (300476.SZ) 4Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - Company: Victory Giant Tech (VGT) - Ticker: 300476.SZ - Market Cap: Rmb244,734 million (approximately US$35,131 million) [2] Financial Performance - 4Q25 NP Guidance: Rmb915-1,315 million, with a midpoint indicating a 1% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) growth, which missed Citi's estimates by 30% and Bloomberg's by 36% [1][3] - Comparison with Previous Quarters: - High-end NP: Rmb1,315 million (Citi estimate: Rmb1,597 million, -18% difference) - Low-end NP: Rmb915 million (Citi estimate: Rmb1,597 million, -43% difference) - Mid-point NP: Rmb1,115 million (Citi estimate: Rmb1,597 million, -30% difference) [3] Key Drivers and Challenges - Key Drivers: - Continued revenue contribution from GB300 expected in 1Q26 [1] - Anticipated catalysts in March, including GTC, OFC, initial CCL/PCB order indications for Rubin, and final testing results of Rubin Ultra backplane [1] - Challenges: - Price cut pressure on key GPU products [1] - Delays in potential ASIC orders not starting mass production [1] - Overall sentiment in the VGT/PCB sector expected to remain range-bound during January-February [1] Valuation and Investment Outlook - Target Price: Rmb407.00, based on a 30x 2026E P/E ratio [8] - Expected Earnings Growth: 96% CAGR from 2025-2027, driven by: - Robust growth from GenAI-related PCB demand - Potential improvement in average selling price (ASP) and gross margin (GM) due to favorable product mix - Business opportunities in datacenter switches and ASICs [8] Risks - Downside Risks: - Less-than-expected share allocation in GenAI-related PCB due to yield issues - Pricing and competition pressures in the automotive supply chain - CSP capital expenditure reductions and weak economic conditions lowering demand - Increasing material costs - US-China geopolitical risks [9] Investment Recommendation - Rating: Buy [5] - Expected Total Return: 45.2%, including a 0.4% expected dividend yield [2] Conclusion Victory Giant Tech's 4Q25 performance fell short of expectations, primarily due to pricing pressures and production delays. However, the company is positioned for significant growth in the coming years, supported by strong demand in the GenAI sector and potential improvements in product margins. Investors should remain cautious of the outlined risks while considering the long-term growth potential.