台积电超预期后-如何看待算力板块投资机会

Summary of TSMC Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) and its impact on the global AI computing sector, particularly in relation to semiconductor supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - TSMC expects Q4 2025 revenue to reach between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a gross margin guidance of 63% to 65%, exceeding market expectations primarily driven by AI demand [1][3]. - TSMC's capital expenditure (CAPEX) for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30% to 40%, significantly higher than the market's prior expectation of $45 billion to $50 billion [1][4]. - The expansion of TSMC's CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) capacity is expected to alleviate supply constraints for North American chip designers like NVIDIA and Google, with capacity projected to increase to 1.3 to 1.4 million units in 2026 and potentially reach 2.4 million units in 2027 [1][6]. - NVIDIA plans to ship 7.5 million GPUs in 2026, while Google’s TPU shipments may reach between 4 million and 5 million units, supported by the expanded CoWoS capacity [1][7]. Implications for the Domestic Computing Industry - The growth in GPU and TPU shipments is anticipated to positively impact the domestic computing supply chain, with a strong investment opportunity in the domestic computing sector over the next one to two years [1][8]. - The release of new CoWoS capacity in the second half of 2026 is expected to sustain demand in the overall computing sector, leading to significant performance improvements for related companies [1][8]. Current Investment Focus - Investment priorities are concentrated in three main areas: optical modules, PCB (Printed Circuit Board), and liquid cooling technologies [1][9]. - For optical modules, demand is projected to rise to 55 million units of 800G and 32 million units of 1.6T in 2026, reflecting increased growth potential despite supply constraints [1][9]. - Recommended companies in the optical module sector include Eastcom, Newray, and Tianfu Communication [1][10]. - In the PCB sector, companies like Shenghong Technology and Jingwang Electronics are highlighted as key recommendations [1][10]. - The liquid cooling sector is identified as having strong growth potential, with core companies including Invec and others [1][10]. Notable Domestic Computing Chain Companies - The domestic computing chain is expected to benefit from global AI trends, with recommended companies including Canxin Technology, Chipone, and leading firms like Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and Huahong Technology [1][11].