Seazen(SH:601155)2026-01-20 03:19Summary of China Property Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property industry, highlighting the challenges faced in the real estate market as of December 2025 and expectations for 2026. Key Points Home Sales and Market Performance - Home sales in December 2025 experienced a milder year-on-year (y-y) decline, with a 24% drop in value and a 16% drop in volume, compared to 25% and 17% declines in November respectively. This brought the full-year 2025 decline to 12.6% in value and 8.7% in volume [2][3] - The NBS 70-city home price index continued to decline, with a 0.4% month-on-month (m-m) drop in primary markets and 0.7% m-m in secondary markets in December [2] Construction Activity - Construction activity remained sluggish, with completions down 18% y-y in December, widening the full-year decline to 18.1%. New starts fell 19% y-y in December, slightly narrowing the full-year decline to 20% y-y [3] - Real estate investment (REI) saw a significant decline of 36% y-y in December, dragging the full-year decline to 17% y-y. High inventory levels and cautious developer sentiment are expected to keep construction activity and REI lackluster in 2026 [3] Market Sentiment and Policy Outlook - The physical market is expected to take longer to stabilize, with a continued downtrend anticipated into 2026, albeit at a softer pace. A high single-digit percentage drop in secondary home prices is expected [4] - The outlook for meaningful nationwide housing policy remains muted, with fragile resident sentiment contributing to ongoing challenges in the market [4] Investment Opportunities - There is expected to be a divergence in share prices between the overall industry and quality names with credible self-help stories in 2026. Companies such as CR Land and Seazen A are favored for their robust mall operations and potential benefits from policy initiatives aimed at boosting consumption [5] - C&D and COLI are identified as residential market consolidators, with optimized land banks supporting margin and earnings recovery [5] Financial Metrics - Total sales value for 2025 was Rmb 8,394 billion, down 12.6% from 2024. Residential sales value was Rmb 7,334 billion, down 13.0% [10] - Total real estate investment for 2025 was Rmb 8,279 billion, down 17.2% from 2024 [10] Additional Insights - The analysis indicates that home prices in tier 1 and select tier 2 cities could stabilize in the second half of 2027 if the macro environment remains resilient [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory digestion and market sentiment as key indicators for future performance in the property sector [4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China Property industry, highlighting both challenges and potential investment opportunities.