思源电气-重申买入评级，预计 5 年内股价翻倍

Sieyuan Electric (002028.SZ) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Company: Sieyuan Electric - Stock Code: 002028.SZ - Market Cap: Rmb159,176 million (US$22,841 million) [6][9] Key Industry Insights - Transformer Exports: China's transformer exports rose 36% year-on-year to US$64.6 billion in 2025, driven by strong global demand [2][11] - US Supply Gap: The US faces a supply gap of about 30% that may persist until 2030, presenting opportunities for Sieyuan [2][11] - State Grid Capex: The State Grid's capex is projected to reach Rmb4 trillion in the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), which is about 40% higher than the previous plan [14][19] Financial Performance - 2025 Results: Sieyuan's net profit for 2025 is expected to increase by 54.4% year-on-year to Rmb3,163 million, exceeding consensus estimates by 8% [21][25] - Revenue Growth: Revenue is projected to grow by 37.2% year-on-year to Rmb21.2 billion in 2025 [21][24] - Earnings Forecast: Net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 8-26% due to higher revenues and margins [25][26] Product and Market Strategy - Product Mix Upgrade: Sieyuan has started production of 750kV GIS, winning orders for over 30 units in 2025, with an average selling price (ASP) of Rmb20 million [3][12] - Export Growth: Revenue from exports is expected to continue growing, with a 90% year-on-year increase to Rmb5.9 billion in 2025, accounting for 28% of total revenue [2][11] Management and Corporate Strategy - Management Track Record: Established in 1993, Sieyuan has a strong focus on power grid equipment and is expected to benefit from the State Grid's capex plans [4][11] - H-Share Listing: The forthcoming Hong Kong listing is anticipated to enhance Sieyuan's global market recognition and facilitate export business development [22][24] Competitive Positioning - Peer Comparison: Sieyuan's 2025E revenue is approximately 95% of HD Hyundai Electric's, but significantly lower than Hitachi and Siemens Energy [11][12] - Margin Analysis: Sieyuan's operating profit and net profit margins are expected to be lower than those of HD Hyundai Electric due to differences in ASP and market exposure [12][13] Financial Ratios and Projections - Earnings Projections: - 2025E Net Profit: Rmb3,163 million - 2026E Net Profit: Rmb4,560 million - 2027E Net Profit: Rmb6,056 million [5][24] - Valuation Metrics: - Target Price: Rmb260 per share, up 53% from previous estimates [6][25] - Expected Total Return: 27.5% [6] Conclusion - Investment Recommendation: The company is rated as a "Buy" with expectations of significant growth driven by strong demand, management effectiveness, and favorable market conditions [1][25]