金蝶国际-管理层调研：AI 代理业务扩张；经常性收入增长带动利润率改善；买入

Summary of Kingdee (0268.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Kingdee International Software Group Company Limited (0268.HK) - Industry: Enterprise Cloud Solutions and AI Technology Key Points 2026 Outlook - Management anticipates continued growth in 2026, driven by increasing contributions from recurring revenues, which will enhance margin improvement and Free Cash Flow (FCF) growth [2] - Positive sentiment regarding increased spending from large-scale clients, with expectations for accelerated growth from mid-scale clients this year [2] - Incremental opportunities identified from service fees, AI features, and higher charges per employee [2] AI Monetization and Product Expansion - Kingdee has launched 30-40 AI agents, including Chat BI, Knowledge agent, GM analysis agent, and Quality testing agent [3] - AI products have penetrated multiple enterprise clients, with deep cooperation on flagship projects with major clients such as Hisense and Seres [3] - Management emphasizes Kingdee's advantages in accumulated data assets and data processing capabilities [3] Financial Projections - 12-Month Price Target: HK$18.98, representing an upside of 25.4% from the current price of HK$15.13 [9] - Market Capitalization: HK$52.8 billion (approximately $6.8 billion) [9] - Revenue Projections: Expected revenues of Rmb 6,255.7 million in 2024, increasing to Rmb 10,729.7 million by 2027 [9] - EBITDA Projections: Expected EBITDA of Rmb 69.8 million in 2024, growing to Rmb 1,364.4 million by 2027 [9] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Projected EPS to improve from (0.04) Rmb in 2024 to 0.25 Rmb by 2027 [9] Risks - Key downside risks include: 1. Weaker-than-expected demand for ERP digitization [5] 2. Slower-than-expected product development processes [5] 3. Increased talent and labor costs [5] Valuation Methodology - Valuation based on a blend of 2-stage DCF and Price/Sales methodologies, incorporating a WACC of 11.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2% [4] Additional Insights - Management's focus on improving employee productivity alongside AI monetization strategies [1] - The company is actively working on data cloud and Gen-AI ERP solutions to enhance its service offerings [1] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the Kingdee conference call, highlighting the company's growth prospects, AI initiatives, financial projections, and associated risks.