GOLDWIND(SZ:002202)2026-01-20 03:19Summary of the Conference Call on China Wind Industry Industry Overview - The focus is on the China Wind Industry, particularly during the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP), with a positive outlook on wind installations and offshore deep-sea developments [2][3][4][22]. Key Points Wind Installation Demand - Forecast for Wind Installations: Expected to reach 110-120 GW annually from 2026 to 2030, with onshore installations stabilizing at approximately 90 GW and offshore installations between 15-20 GW per year from 2027 to 2030 [3][22]. - Investment Appeal: Wind power is seen as more attractive compared to solar energy post-Document No.136, supported by national energy transition targets [3][24]. Offshore Deep-Sea Developments - Acceleration of Projects: Significant progress is anticipated in offshore deep-sea projects, with a preliminary pipeline of ~100 GW and expected annual installations starting at over 10 GW during the 15th FYP [4][23]. - Policy Support: Clearer policy guidance is expected to be announced, enhancing the development of deep-sea offshore wind [4][24]. European Market Dynamics - Contracts for Difference (CfD): The UK's recent AR7 CfD auction awarded 8.4 GW of offshore wind capacity, a 58% increase from the previous round, indicating strong demand and export opportunities for Chinese suppliers [5][43]. - Export Opportunities: The expanding European offshore wind market is expected to drive demand for Chinese components, including wind turbine parts and submarine cables [5][43]. Company Preferences and Ratings - Component Suppliers Preferred: Preference is given to component suppliers like ZTT, Sinoma S&T, and Riyue due to their strong earnings growth outlook and margin recovery potential [6][14][15]. - OEMs Outlook: The business turnaround for wind turbine OEMs has largely been priced in, with expectations of stable onshore WTG prices and slight declines in offshore prices [15][37]. Market Performance - Stock Performance in 2025: Wind equipment stocks rallied between 3.6% to 177.8%, outperforming market indices, attributed to an industry turnaround after a down cycle [12][17]. - Future Expectations: Key component players are expected to outperform OEMs in 2026 due to ongoing margin improvements and favorable raw material costs [13][17]. Competitive Landscape - Market Consolidation: The onshore wind market has become more consolidated, with the top three players increasing their market share from 44.3% in 2024 to 48.2% in 2025 [30][31]. - Fragmentation in Offshore Market: The offshore market remains fragmented, with new entrants gaining market share, leading to a decline in the combined market share of the top three players from 80.0% to 53.4% [32]. Additional Insights - Tendering Trends: Public WTG tenders fell by 14.3% in 2025, but new installations remained robust, with a 59.4% YoY increase in the final year of the 14th FYP [20][25]. - Price Trends: Onshore WTG prices increased by 5-10% YoY, while offshore prices saw a decline of 4-7% YoY due to a more fragmented competitive landscape [36][38]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and forecasts regarding the China wind industry, highlighting the positive outlook for installations, the importance of offshore developments, and the dynamics of the European market that favor Chinese suppliers.