Beijing Caishikou Department Store (SH:605599)2026-01-21 02:20Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company: Cai Bai Co., Ltd. (菜百股份) Key Points - Strong Growth Performance: Cai Bai Co., Ltd. has shown accelerated performance since Q4, primarily due to strong demand in Beijing's gold and jewelry market, benefits from tax reforms, and rising gold prices. [1] - Retail Sales Growth: From January to November, retail sales of gold and jewelry in Beijing increased by 40.5% year-on-year, with further acceleration noted. For the period from January to September, the year-on-year growth was 33.5%. During the New Year holiday, Cai Bai's average daily sales doubled compared to the previous year. [1] - Future Earnings Projections: The company is expected to achieve over 900 million in earnings for the year 2025, with a projected quarterly growth rate exceeding 50% in Q4. The gold bar business is anticipated to maintain high growth in Q1 2026, while the jewelry business is expected to recover steadily. [1] - Wealth Effect and Market Demand: The increase in gold bar sales over the past two years has been driven not only by rising gold prices but also by changes in asset allocation and financial needs. Gold bars are viewed as a liquid and high-potential asset, serving as a vehicle for wealth effect. [2] - Online Sales Channels: Currently, 93.1% of sales in external markets are conducted through online channels, predominantly in the form of gold bars. This indicates significant opportunities for future expansion in external markets. [2] - Valuation and Dividend Yield: The company is considered undervalued with a high dividend yield. For 2026, a conservative estimate suggests a 15%-20% growth in earnings, corresponding to a profit of 1.05 billion. The projected dividend yield is 5.9%, with a valuation of 13 times earnings, indicating strong cost-effectiveness and continued recommendation for investment. [2]