珀莱雅20260120

Summary of the Conference Call for Proya (珀莱雅) Company Overview - Proya is a cosmetics company that has experienced fluctuations in its valuation since its IPO in 2017, driven by net profit growth and a focus on blockbuster products during its initial years [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - Since 2025, Proya has seen a significant slowdown in quarterly revenue growth, although the first quarter of 2025 exceeded profit expectations. Overall, the sustainability of this growth is questionable [3]. - The gross margin has shown a steady increase, while the net profit margin has remained relatively stable. However, the valuation has been on a downward trend since 2025, currently at historical lows [3][4]. Brand Performance - The main brand, Proya, experienced negative growth overall in 2025, with only the third quarter showing positive growth due to new product launches and a low base effect. In contrast, sub-brands such as of relax, 原色波塔, and 花知晓 performed exceptionally well, with of relax achieving a compound growth rate close to 150% [2][6]. Leadership and Strategic Concerns - There are concerns regarding the declining momentum of the main brand and risks associated with leadership changes. However, the new leadership team has successfully integrated over the past year, and the operational capabilities of the company have matured [7]. Product Innovation - Proya is actively pursuing product innovation in 2025, including upgrades to the dual-antioxidant series, which saw a 72% year-on-year increase within 10 days of launch, and a significant upgrade to the ruby series. A new ruby microbead essence is set to be launched, promoted through social media platforms like 小红书 [8]. Future Directions - The company plans to focus on key areas such as whitening, soothing, anti-aging, sun protection, and post-operative recovery. Additionally, Proya is investing in emerging brands like 花知晓 to expand its market presence and is exploring the home beauty device sector to tap into the broader water-light market [9][10]. Profit Forecast - Proya's net profit is projected to be approximately 1.58 billion yuan in 2025, maintaining slight growth, with an expected increase to 1.74 billion yuan in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of around 10%. The current price-to-earnings ratio is 16 times, indicating a relatively cheap valuation compared to its quality [5][11]. Additional Important Insights - The company’s ability to regain valuation hinges on the recovery of its main brand's performance and stable growth across its business segments [4]. - Proya aims to establish itself as a benchmark for domestic brands and pursue international expansion to achieve valuation premiums [5][11].