GOTION(SZ:002074)2026-01-21 02:40Key Points Summary of Guoxuan High-Tech (002074.SZ) 2026 Business Outlook Conference Call Company Overview - Guoxuan High-Tech (002074.SZ) held a conference call on January 17 to discuss its business outlook for 2026, attended by Vice President of Investor Relations Liu Qinfeng and other management members [1] Industry and Market Insights - As of the end of 2025, the company expects to have an effective battery capacity of approximately 150 GWh, including over 30 GWh of energy storage battery capacity [1] - Management anticipates that by the end of 2026, effective battery capacity will exceed 200 GWh, with energy storage battery capacity around 60 GWh [1] Investment Ratings and Financial Data - Citigroup has assigned a rating to Guoxuan High-Tech [1] - As of January 16, 2026, the company's stock price was CNY 41.34 per share, with a target price set at CNY 56.70 per share, indicating an expected stock return of 37.2% [1] - The expected dividend yield is 0.3%, and the total expected return is 37.4% [2] - The company's total market capitalization is CNY 749.95 billion, equivalent to approximately USD 107.62 billion [2] Cost Structure and Pricing Mechanism - The pricing mechanism for electric vehicle batteries and energy storage batteries incorporates lithium costs [2] - Guoxuan High-Tech is negotiating with customers to include costs of electrolyte, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and copper in the pricing mechanism [2] - The self-sufficiency rate for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials is high, with annual production capacity between 200,000 to 300,000 tons [2] - The company also has a certain scale of anode material production capacity [2] Lithium Resource Business - In 2025, the company's lithium product output is expected to be less than 10,000 tons [2] - Management projects that lithium product output will exceed 10,000 tons in 2026, contingent on lithium price conditions [2] Overseas Capacity Expansion - The company has launched a 5 GWh battery capacity in Vietnam and is advancing plans for a second phase with customers [2] - Battery capacity has been planned in the United States, Slovakia, and Morocco [2] Electric Vehicle Battery Shipment Insights - In 2023, the shipment volume of batteries for mid-to-high-end electric vehicle models accounted for less than 10% of the total electric vehicle battery shipments [2] - The company has been continuously increasing the shipment proportion of batteries for mid-to-high-end electric vehicle models [2] - By the end of 2025, the monthly shipment volume of batteries for mid-to-high-end electric vehicle models is expected to exceed a certain percentage of total electric vehicle battery shipments [3] Valuation Analysis - Citigroup employs an enterprise value/EBITDA valuation method for Guoxuan High-Tech, which mitigates uncertainties related to capital structure [3] - Based on the expected enterprise value/EBITDA of 16.7 times for 2026, this figure is 0.4 standard deviations below the historical average since 2012, primarily due to a slowdown in EBITDA growth compared to historical highs [4] - The calculated reasonable stock price is CNY 56.70 per share, corresponding to a projected P/E ratio of 69.4 times for 2025 and 37.1 times for 2026 [4]