应流股份：目标 2028-29 年实现双电机产能 50 亿元、总营收 100 亿元；给予 “买入” 评级

Summary of Yingliu (603308.SS) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Yingliu (603308.SS) - Industry: Industrial Technology & Machinery Key Points Revenue and Capacity Guidance - Yingliu targets a firmwide revenue of Rmb10 billion and a two-engine capacity of Rmb5 billion, with a base case for achievement by 2030 and an aggressive case by 2028-29 [1][2] - The company anticipates new orders in 2026 to exceed Rmb3 billion, supported by strong order momentum [1][3] Order Momentum - New orders reached Rmb4.15 billion in 2025, up from Rmb3.2 billion in 2024 and Rmb2.6 billion in 2023, indicating a significant acceleration in demand [3] - The order backlog stood at Rmb2.96 billion at the end of 2025, with Rmb1.7-1.8 billion related to two-engine products [3] Customer Base - Core customers include Baker Hughes, Siemens Energy, and Ansaldo Energia, all of which have shown meaningful order acceleration [1][3] - Baker Hughes contributed approximately Rmb300 million to the backlog as of end-2025 [3] Pricing Strategy - The company maintains a disciplined pricing strategy with no direct price increases, focusing instead on securing more platforms and models [9][10] - Average selling prices (ASP) are rising structurally due to a shift towards higher-value platforms and complex components [10] Capacity Expansion - A new expansion cycle was initiated in 4Q25 with incremental capex of approximately Rmb150 million, focusing on debottlenecking rather than full production line replication [6] - Equipment delivery is expected within 10-12 months, with meaningful capacity release anticipated in 2027 [7] Commercial Space Opportunities - Yingliu expects Rmb20 million in revenue from commercial space in 2026, with significant demand from LandSpace Technology Corp [11] - The company is evaluating 3D printing technology, with a potential investment of Rmb100-200 million, though this remains optional [12] Performance with Key Clients - Revenue from Siemens Energy doubled in 2025 compared to 2024, with Rmb400 million in new orders signed [13] - Orders from Ansaldo saw a sharp increase, with Rmb240 million signed in November 2025 alone, compared to historical levels of Rmb40-50 million annually [13] Risks - Key downside risks include potential delays in capacity ramp-up, lower-than-expected order intake growth, and weakening demand from hyperscalers [15] Financial Projections - Market cap: Rmb37.0 billion / $5.3 billion - Revenue projections for 2026E: Rmb3,980.3 million, with EBITDA of Rmb1,059.7 million [14] Valuation - The 12-month price target is set at Rmb52.7, based on a 2028E P/E of 30x, discounted to 2026E at a cost of equity of 10% [14] Additional Insights - The company is focused on disciplined capacity expansion and pricing strategies to enhance competitiveness in the market [9][10] - Yingliu's strategic partnerships with major clients are expected to drive future growth and order intake [1][3]