Summary of Tongcheng Travel Holdings (0780.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Tongcheng Travel Holdings - Industry: Online Travel Agency (OTA) - Founded: 2018 - Market Position: Third-largest OTA in China, focusing on accommodation reservation and transportation ticketing services [27][28] Key Financial Projections - 4Q25 Revenue: Expected to grow by 13% year-over-year to RMB 4.78 billion, aligning with VisibleAlpha consensus [2] - 4Q25 Adjusted Earnings: Estimated at RMB 760 million, consistent with consensus of RMB 752 million [2] - 2025E Revenue Growth: Projected hotel revenue growth at 15.8% year-over-year, driven by ADR recovery and room nights growth [1] - 2026E Revenue Growth: Anticipated low teens growth in hotel revenues, supported by expansion into lower-tier cities and outbound travel [1][3] Financial Metrics - Gross Profit Margin: Estimated at 65% for 4Q25, down from 66% in 3Q25 due to increased marketing expenses [2] - Non-GAAP Operating Profit Margin: Expected to decrease to 18% from 23% in 3Q25 [2] - Earnings Estimates: - 2023A: Net Profit of RMB 2,188 million, EPS of RMB 0.953 - 2024A: Net Profit of RMB 2,771 million, EPS of RMB 1.210 - 2025E: Net Profit of RMB 3,368 million, EPS of RMB 1.463 - 2026E: Net Profit of RMB 3,898 million, EPS of RMB 1.676 [5][10] Market and Regulatory Environment - Regulatory Risks: Ongoing anti-trust investigation on TCOM has raised concerns, but it is believed to have minimal impact on Tongcheng's operations due to its relative independence [4][23] - Acquisition Strategy: After several acquisitions in 2025, Tongcheng may slow its acquisition pace in 2026, focusing on smaller assets with clear synergies [4] Investment Outlook - Target Price: Remains at HK$28, with an expected share price return of 18.6% [6][10] - Short-Term View: Positive outlook due to undemanding valuation and upcoming Chinese New Year [1][23] - Investment Rating: Maintained as "Buy" based on structural strength, market share gains, and potential growth from outbound travel [28] Risks - Competitive Landscape: Risks include increased competition from OTA peers and reliance on hotel supply from Trip.com and Tencent's platforms [30] Additional Insights - Traffic Expansion: Aggressive traffic expansion strategy leveraging Tencent's platforms, with a significant portion of users from lower-tier cities [27] - Revenue Composition: In 2018, accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, and others accounted for 35%, 62%, and 4% of total revenue, respectively [27] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Tongcheng Travel Holdings, highlighting financial projections, market conditions, and investment outlook.
同程旅行：2025 年第四季度前瞻：估值合理，基本面稳健