CSX(CSX) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - CSX reported a modest total volume growth of 1% in the fourth quarter, but revenue decreased by 1% due to business mix headwinds and coal pricing [7][12] - Operating income fell by 9% and earnings per share decreased by 7% year-over-year, with results impacted by approximately $50 million in expenses related to workforce optimization and technology impairments [3][8] - Fourth quarter expenses increased by $73 million, or 3%, excluding goodwill impairment charges, with a focus on driving efficiency in labor costs [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Merchandise volume and revenue both declined by 2%, with significant softness in chemicals and forest products, where volumes dropped by 6% and 11% respectively [13] - The intermodal franchise saw revenue growth of 7% year-over-year, driven by a 5% increase in volume, indicating strong performance in this segment [14] - Coal business volume increased by 1% year-over-year, with domestic tonnage up by 6% due to rising power demand and higher natural gas prices, while export tonnage declined by 3% [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The industrial chemicals market remains weak, and many customers are controlling freight spending due to inflation and tariff pressures [13] - The housing market is expected to see a modest decline in starts, impacting the automotive market and overall commodity demand [16] - Infrastructure project activity is driving demand for materials such as cement and aggregates, which is a positive for CSX's merchandise volumes [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - CSX is focused on delivering stronger performance through cost structure adjustments and operational efficiencies, aiming for year-over-year operating margin expansion of 200-300 basis points in 2026 [20][21] - The company plans to maintain capital expenditures below $2.4 billion, prioritizing investments in safety, reliability, and growth projects [21] - CSX is preparing for potential opportunities arising from industry mergers while emphasizing the importance of running the business effectively in the interim [50][51] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges a challenging year with subdued demand and limited growth opportunities, but remains committed to improving service levels and operational efficiency [3][4] - The near-term outlook for key markets remains soft, with expectations of low single-digit revenue growth based on flat industrial production and modest GDP growth [20] - Management is optimistic about the potential for growth in 2026, particularly in intermodal and domestic utility segments, despite ongoing market uncertainties [18][19] Other Important Information - The company has identified over 100 diverse savings initiatives aimed at reducing non-labor spending and improving operational efficiency [10][46] - CSX is focused on enhancing its pricing strategies to ensure pricing growth exceeds cost inflation in 2026 [25][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the base operating ratio for 2025 and how does pricing compare to cost inflation? - The base operating ratio for 2025 excludes goodwill charges, and management is optimistic about achieving pricing above cost inflation in 2026 through new pricing structures [25][26] Question: Can you provide details on the 200-300 basis point guidance for improvement? - The guidance includes unique charges from 2025, and management expects significant productivity improvements driven by cost optimization initiatives [29][30] Question: What are the expectations for revenue growth in 2026? - Revenue growth is expected to be low single-digit, with modest volume growth anticipated, influenced by market conditions and pricing strategies [33][34] Question: How is CSX preparing for upcoming storms and operational challenges? - CSX is better prepared for storms this year, with improved network conditions and proactive measures in place to mitigate disruptions [38][39] Question: How is the company positioning itself amid industry mergers? - CSX is focused on running the business effectively while preparing for potential opportunities arising from industry consolidation [50][51] Question: What is the outlook for coal revenue per unit (RPU)? - Coal RPU is expected to stabilize, with a mix of lower RPU segments impacting overall revenue growth [54][57]