如何看待本轮被动元器件涨价行情

Summary of Conference Call on Passive Component Price Trends Industry Overview - The passive components market is experiencing price increases across nearly all categories, including capacitors, resistors, diodes, inductors, and ferrite beads, driven primarily by raw material inflation [1][2][3] - The current price increase is characterized by a more rational market behavior compared to the previous cycle from 2017 to 2022, where speculative hoarding was prevalent [1][6] Key Points and Arguments - Price Transmission: Price increases are transmitted in layers; small and medium-sized end customers face price hikes of 30%-40%, while large customers with long-term contracts experience increases of less than 10% [4][2] - MLCC Market Dynamics: Although MLCC (Multi-layer Ceramic Capacitors) prices have not officially increased, high-capacity products have seen price rises. Manufacturers are cautious to avoid past mistakes of rapid price hikes [7][8] - Market Share Concentration: The MLCC market is dominated by four major players: Murata, Samsung, Yageo, and Sanhua, which together hold 80% of the market share. Strategies include reducing production and increasing agent thresholds [9] - Domestic Brand Growth: Domestic brands like Chaozhou Sanhua are gaining market share as customers shift from foreign brands to more cost-effective local options [10][12] - Future Price Trends: The trajectory of component prices will largely depend on raw material costs, with increases in silver and copper prices likely to push costs higher [13] Additional Important Insights - Inventory Management: Unlike the panic buying seen in previous years, current stakeholders are managing inventory more rationally, purchasing based on actual orders rather than speculation [5] - Historical Context: The last significant price surge occurred from July 2017 to the end of 2022, driven largely by human factors and market manipulation, whereas the current situation is primarily influenced by raw material costs [6][14] - Cautious Market Sentiment: Despite expectations of price increases, companies are hesitant to expand production capacity significantly, reflecting a cautious approach to market dynamics [11] - Emerging Demand Areas: While AI servers and storage are currently stable, the AI glasses sector may emerge as a new growth point in the future [18][16] Conclusion The passive components market is currently undergoing a price increase driven by raw material inflation, with a more rational market response compared to previous cycles. The focus on domestic brands and cautious inventory management reflects a significant shift in market dynamics. Future price trends will depend heavily on raw material costs and the evolving demand landscape, particularly in emerging technologies.