大摩闭门会-存储-AI新瓶颈

Summary of Conference Call on Memory Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the memory market, specifically DRAM and NAND sectors, in the context of increasing AI demands and evolving architectures [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - Increased Demand from AI: The reliance on memory in AI systems is growing, with AGI systems requiring enhanced memory capabilities for context understanding and long-term learning. This is expected to significantly increase the demand for DRAM and SSDs [2][4]. - Projected Memory Consumption: It is estimated that by 2026, text reasoning alone will consume approximately 35% of global DRAM supply and 90% of NAND supply, indicating a structural increase in overall memory demand [3][4]. - Price Forecasts: - DRAM prices are expected to rise by 50%-60% in Q1 2026, with some manufacturers anticipating even higher increases. NAND prices are projected to increase by 50%-80% during the same period [5][6]. - A consensus for Q2 indicates a price increase of 15%-20%, with significant pricing power still expected [5][6]. - Supply Shortages: The MLC NAND market is facing severe supply shortages, with global production capacity dropping by 60% due to reductions by major players like Samsung and Micron. This is expected to lead to a price increase of around 400% [10]. Additional Important Points - Deepseek Ingress Architecture: The introduction of the Ingress architecture by Deepseek optimizes memory and reasoning separation, enhancing performance without increasing memory usage. This shift indicates a competitive advantage for Chinese AI development in system design [4]. - CSP Long-term Contracts: U.S. Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) are signing long-term contracts to ensure CPU supply, which is driving strong demand for server DRAM and impacting older memory markets like DDR4 and low-tier NAND [6][7]. - Market Dynamics: The overall memory market has seen a significant shift in supply and demand dynamics over the past year, with supply decreasing faster than demand, particularly in the DDR4 segment [8][9]. - Impact on End Products: Rising memory costs are expected to affect end products such as PCs and smartphones, with anticipated declines in shipments for PCs and Chinese Android phones by approximately 10% and 8-10%, respectively [13]. Conclusion - The memory market is entering a phase of significant price increases and supply constraints driven by the growing demands of AI applications and evolving architectures. The strategic moves by major players and the introduction of innovative technologies will shape the future landscape of the memory industry.