中国材料：2026 实地需求监测- 铝库存与消费情况-China Materials_ 2026 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #12 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption

Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (January 2026) Industry Overview - Industry: Aluminum - Focus: Tracking and analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends in China, particularly aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and consumption data for the week of January 15th to 21st, 2026 [1] Key Points Production Data - Total Aluminum Production: 858,000 tons (kt), unchanged week-over-week (WoW), +3% year-over-year (YoY), and +3% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - Aluminum Billet Production: 330,000 kt, -4% WoW, +9% YoY, and -3% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - Year-to-Date (YTD) Production: - Total aluminum production: 3.4 million tons (mnt), +2.8% YoY - Aluminum billet production: 1.4 mnt, +6.1% YoY [2] Inventory Levels - Total Aluminum Inventory: 1,201 kt as of January 22, 2026, +2% WoW, +29% YoY, and +56% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - Social Inventory: 998 kt, +4% WoW, +48% YoY, and +64% YoY on the lunar calendar - Producers' Inventory: 203 kt, -3% WoW, -20% YoY, and +25% YoY on the lunar calendar - Aluminum Ingot Inventory: 848 kt, +1% WoW, +58% YoY, and +56% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - Aluminum Billet Inventory: 353 kt, +5% WoW, -10% YoY, and +57% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] Apparent Consumption - Overall Aluminum Apparent Consumption: 841 kt, +6% WoW, +21% YoY, and +2% YoY on the lunar calendar [4] - Aluminum Ingot Consumption: 871 kt, +3% WoW, +4% YoY, and +2% YoY on the lunar calendar - Aluminum Billet Consumption: 300 kt, +2% WoW, +84% YoY, and -3% YoY on the lunar calendar - YTD Apparent Consumption: - Overall: 3.2 mnt, -1.1% YoY - Aluminum ingot: -3.6% YoY - Aluminum billet: +16.0% YoY [4] Takeaways - The increase in aluminum ingot and billet inventory is indicative of overall aluminum demand trends, suggesting a cautious market expectation for demand recovery [5] - The apparent consumption levels during the week were higher than the same period in 2024-25 on the lunar calendar, indicating a potential upward trend in demand [7] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of inventory data in assessing overall aluminum demand, as it reflects changes across various types of aluminum inventory [5] - The aluminum sector is currently ranked highest in the sector pecking order, followed by copper, battery materials, gold, coal, cement, and steel [1]