ASML Holding(ASML) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record net revenue of EUR 32.7 billion for 2025, with a gross margin of 52.8% and a net income of EUR 9.6 billion, resulting in an earnings per share (EPS) of approximately EUR 25 [30][31] - EUV technology was the main driver of growth, with a 39% increase in sales compared to 2024, attributed to higher sales prices and increased productivity of tools [31][32] - DUV sales decreased by 6%, primarily due to a decline in the Chinese market [33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The installed base business saw a 26% increase, driven by service revenue from EUV and upgrades [34] - Memory accounted for 34% of sales, while logic represented 66%, with expectations for memory to become more significant in 2026 [35] - The metrology and inspection business grew by almost 30%, reflecting increased demand for process control [20][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Chinese market's contribution to total sales decreased from 33% to 20%, indicating a significant decline in system sales from China [36][82] - The company expects the memory market to tighten significantly in 2026, with customers aggressively expanding capacity [63][64] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow revenue to between EUR 44 billion and EUR 60 billion by 2030, maintaining a gross margin of 56%-60% [11] - The focus on AI is expected to drive demand for advanced technology, particularly EUV, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [10][16] - The company is restructuring its technology team to enhance agility and innovation, reducing leadership positions while increasing engineering roles [50][51] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of AI demand, which is expected to drive capacity investments from customers [8][9] - The company noted that the last three months have clarified the outlook for 2026, with customers increasingly committed to expanding capacity [5][6] - The management acknowledged the need for organizational simplification to improve responsiveness and innovation [49][52] Other Important Information - The company announced a new share buyback program of EUR 12 billion over three years, with a proposed dividend of EUR 7.50 per share for the year [39][40] - The company is committed to community engagement, including investments in mobility, affordable housing, and cultural initiatives [24][25][26] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: What kind of restructuring costs or charges can be expected from the job cuts? - Management indicated that the costs would not be considered material in the grand scheme of ASML's finances [60] Question: How much of the capacity expansion announcements from customers is related to real capacity versus CapEx inflation? - Management clarified that capacity expansion translates directly into the need for more tools, with significant customer commitments observed recently [61][62] Question: How is the AI memory shortage driving business, and how aggressive are customers in capacity expansion compared to logic? - Management noted that memory, particularly high-bandwidth memory for AI, is currently the bottleneck, leading to aggressive capacity expansion from memory customers [63][64] Question: How does the stabilizing AI market influence job growth in Eindhoven? - Management affirmed that long-term growth remains a priority, with job additions planned in manufacturing and customer service despite the restructuring in the technology team [67][68] Question: Does the reorganization affect the internal structure regarding D&E or R&D? - Management confirmed that the transformation will primarily focus on D&E, aiming to improve interfaces and responsiveness [71][72] Question: Is the supply chain prepared for the new demand in machines? - Management stated that they have been working with the supply chain to ensure readiness for increased capacity, with long lead time items already in place [73][75] Question: Is the decline in the Chinese market in absolute numbers? - Management confirmed that the Chinese market is indeed declining in absolute numbers, normalizing after a backlog built during the COVID period [82][84]