Nvidia(US:NVDA)2026-01-29 02:42Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on 800 VDC Shift Industry Overview - The report focuses on the data center industry and the transition to 800 VDC (Volts Direct Current) architecture, driven by the increasing power demands of AI training and inference workloads [2][12][56]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Adoption Timeline: - 800 VDC adoption is expected to begin with NVIDIA's new platforms, Rubin Ultra and Feynman, launching in 2027 and 2028 respectively. It is projected that 10% of AI training additions will adopt 800 VDC in 2027, increasing to 80% in 2028, and reaching 100% from 2029 onwards [3][4]. 2. Market Impact: - By 2030, it is estimated that 15% of global data center capacity and 25% of GW additions will feature 800 VDC. The adoption will phase in as follows: 5% in 2027, 35% in 2028 & 2029, and 45% in 2030 [4][39]. 3. Electrical Content Changes: - The transition will involve three phases of electrical content change, significantly reducing reliance on legacy AC equipment. Phase 1 will see a -40% reduction in AC PDUs by 2030, Phase 2 will reduce UPS for IT loads by -60%, and Phase 3 will replace switchgear and transformers with solid-state transformers, leading to reductions of -25% and -80% respectively [5][27]. 4. Growth Opportunities: - Despite the challenges, three growth opportunities are identified: - New 800 VDC equipment, including sidecars and solid-state transformers. - Liquid cooling systems that scale with power density. - Automation technologies that enhance power, thermal, and compute management [6][10]. 5. UPS Market Outlook: - The UPS market is expected to grow at a low double-digit CAGR over the next five years, despite a -60% reduction in the total addressable market (TAM) for UPS related to IT loads by 2030. UPS for thermal loads linked to liquid cooling distribution units is projected to grow at approximately 30% per annum [7][10]. 6. Net Impact on Growth: - The overall impact of the 800 VDC shift is projected to be modestly negative, with a <2pp annual headwind to growth by 2030. The shift is expected to result in a -12% reduction in TAM, equating to -$0.65B/GW from an all-in $5.5B/GW [8][40]. Additional Important Insights 1. Investment Implications: - Companies with exposure to liquid cooling and UPS businesses, such as Schneider, Eaton, and Vertiv, are viewed positively. Automation is also highlighted as a critical area for growth due to the increasing complexity of AI data centers [10][45]. 2. Key Players Affected: - Companies like Schneider, Eaton, and ABB are expected to be significantly impacted by the 800 VDC transition, with a need to develop solid-state transformer capabilities to remain competitive [10][50]. 3. Market Dynamics: - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the evolving landscape of data center architecture and the potential for new entrants and technologies to disrupt traditional suppliers [10][50]. 4. Safety and Regulatory Considerations: - The transition to 800 VDC presents operational and safety risks, necessitating new certifications and standards, which could impact the speed of adoption [83][84]. 5. Future Projections: - The report anticipates that the 800 VDC architecture will become increasingly relevant for inference workloads post-2030, primarily due to efficiency gains rather than immediate power density requirements [92][93]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the shift to 800 VDC in the data center industry, highlighting both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.