全球石油_月度机构数据快照_年初波动，供应过剩仍存-Global Oil_ Monthly Agency Data Snapshot_ Noisy start to the year, surplus intact

Summary of Global Oil Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global oil market, focusing on supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts, and geopolitical risks affecting oil production and pricing. Key Points Oil Price Trends - Oil prices have fluctuated within a $7/bbl range, with Brent rebounding to the mid-$60s due to geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Iran and disruptions in Kazakhstan [2][9] - The market is expected to remain in a large surplus, with Brent prices projected to stay low in the near term [9][10] Supply and Demand Forecasts - The global oil market is projected to have a surplus of over 2Mb/d in 2026, with the IEA forecasting a surplus of 3.7Mb/d and the EIA at 2.8Mb/d [3][22] - Demand growth forecasts for 2026 vary: UBS estimates 1.4Mb/d, while the EIA revised down to 1.1Mb/d, and OPEC remains unchanged at 1.4Mb/d [29][33] - Non-OPEC+ supply growth is expected to slow, with UBS raising its forecast to 0.7Mb/d for 2026, primarily driven by the US [37][66] Geopolitical Risks - Kazakhstan's oil output has been affected by disruptions, with potential outages reaching up to 1Mb/d due to issues at the Tengiz and Korolev oilfields [60][65] - OPEC+ compliance remains a concern, with the potential for supply disruptions in Russia and other member countries impacting overall production [10][11][65] Price Scenarios - Upside scenarios for oil prices could arise from supply disruptions, particularly in Russia, potentially pushing Brent prices closer to $70/bbl [10] - Downside risks include resolutions to current supply disruptions, which could lower prices below $60/bbl, especially if a recession occurs [11] Production Adjustments - OPEC+ output in December decreased by 40kb/d, with significant reductions from Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, despite a rebound in Russian output [5][92] - The unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary cuts is expected to resume in April 2026, with a planned increase of 137kb/d per month [97] Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook suggests that oil demand may peak around 2030, with a plateau expected rather than a sharp decline thereafter [69] - The impact of electric vehicles (EVs) is anticipated to gradually reduce gasoline demand, with a significant shift expected by 2030 [75] Conclusion - The global oil market is characterized by a significant surplus, mixed demand forecasts, and geopolitical uncertainties that could influence both supply and pricing dynamics in the near to medium term [60][62]