PMI(PM) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
PMIPMI(US:PM)2026-02-06 15:00

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, total net revenues exceeded $40 billion, with 41.5% or nearly $17 billion generated from smoke-free products [8][11] - Adjusted diluted EPS grew by 15% in dollar terms, marking the strongest growth since 2011, excluding the pandemic recovery year of 2021 [5][11] - Organic top-line growth was +6.5%, with adjusted operating income growth at +10.6%, reflecting +140 basis points of organic margin expansion [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Smoke-free product volumes grew by 12.8%, with organic smoke-free gross profit growth of 18.7% [3][12] - IQOS shipments grew by approximately 11%, with a notable acceleration in the fourth quarter [3][15] - ZYN shipments in the U.S. increased by 37%, contributing significantly to smoke-free product growth [5][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The international business generated the majority of total PMI organic net revenue growth, with smoke-free products leading the way [5][19] - In Japan, the heat-not-burn category surpassed 50% of total industry volumes, driven by IQOS [25][26] - The U.S. market for nicotine pouches saw ZYN capturing around 50% of category growth, with a volume share of 61.5% [30][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on a multi-category strategy, expanding its smoke-free product offerings and geographic reach [4][9] - There is a strong emphasis on innovation and digitalization to support long-term growth [9][43] - The company targets a leverage ratio of close to 2x by the end of 2026, indicating a focus on financial flexibility and shareholder returns [7][44] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving strong growth despite transitory headwinds, with a forecast of 5%-7% organic net revenue growth for 2026 [36][37] - The company anticipates continued strong cash generation, with operating cash flow projected at around $13.5 billion [38][43] - Management highlighted the importance of navigating regulatory environments and enhancing brand equity for future growth [32][33] Other Important Information - The company achieved a historic high share for Marlboro, reaching 11% of the international category, excluding China [34][5] - The number of legal-age consumers of smoke-free products reached an estimated 43.5 million, reflecting broad-based growth across categories [20][19] - The company is committed to delivering superior shareholder value, with a target dividend payout ratio of around 75% of adjusted diluted EPS [44][45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the reacceleration in smoke-free volume growth compared to the 2026 growth guidance? - Management indicated that the acceleration is expected due to tax changes in Japan and competitive dynamics in the U.S. market [49][50] Question: How are you thinking in terms of IQOS, HTU shipments, and IMS for 2026? - Management noted that while Japan faces challenges, other markets like Italy and Germany are showing strong growth, contributing positively to IQOS's outlook [58][62] Question: What are the key growth drivers for the upcoming year? - Management emphasized the importance of ZYN and IQOS, along with ongoing investments in marketing and innovation, as key drivers for growth [72][75]