POP MART(HK:09992)2026-02-10 03:24Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - Companies Covered: Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) and Lao Pu Gold (老铺黄金) - Industry: Toy and Gold Jewelry Industry Key Points on Pop Mart 1. Sales Performance: - Pop Mart's Labubu brand sold over 100 million units in 2025, with total product sales exceeding 400 million units across all categories and IPs [1][2] - The average selling price for Labubu products in China is approximately 99 RMB, while overseas prices can be 1.8 to 2 times higher [1][2] 2. Revenue Projections: - Estimated revenue for 2025 is around 40 billion RMB, based on sales data and product pricing [3][5] - Q3 revenue is projected at approximately 12.5 billion RMB, with Q4 expected to show a sequential increase [5][6] 3. Market Sentiment: - Despite strong revenue growth, the stock price has experienced a pullback due to a performance vacuum period and concerns over third-party data indicating slowing growth in North America [6][8] - Upcoming financial reports in March and April are expected to boost market confidence [6][7] 4. Product Launches and Trends: - Recent product launches, including collaborations and new IPs, have exceeded market expectations, contributing to strong sales growth [10][12] - The company continues to innovate with existing IPs, leading to successful product releases [10][11] 5. Store Expansion: - As of early February, Pop Mart has 435 stores in mainland China, with ongoing expansion plans [17][18] - The company is also increasing its international presence, with over 180 stores outside of mainland China [19][20] 6. Investment Recommendation: - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Pop Mart, projecting a revenue of approximately 40 billion RMB and a net profit of around 14 billion RMB for 2025, with expectations of continued growth into 2026 [23][24] Key Points on Lao Pu Gold 1. Market Position: - Lao Pu Gold is positioned well in the high-end gold jewelry market, benefiting from rising gold prices and a unique pricing strategy that allows for competitive advantages [26][27] 2. Sales Growth: - The company is expected to achieve a sales target of 5 billion RMB for 2025, with projections for continued growth in 2026 driven by store openings and same-store sales increases [28][29] 3. Pricing Strategy: - Lao Pu Gold's pricing strategy allows it to maintain a competitive edge, even as gold prices fluctuate, with expectations of double-digit growth in same-store sales [29][30] 4. Store Expansion: - The company has successfully established 48 stores in prime locations, making it difficult for new entrants to compete [27][28] 5. Long-term Outlook: - Analysts believe that Lao Pu Gold's unique market position and pricing strategy will allow it to maintain strong sales and profitability, with a projected net profit of 7 billion RMB for 2026 [30][31] 6. Valuation: - Current valuations are considered reasonable, with potential for upward adjustments based on performance and market conditions [31][32] Additional Insights - Consumer Trends: Both companies are experiencing strong consumer demand, particularly during peak seasons, which is expected to continue into the upcoming months [14][30] - Market Dynamics: The toy and jewelry industries are facing unique challenges and opportunities, with Pop Mart focusing on IP-driven sales and Lao Pu Gold leveraging its established market presence [22][26]