HAIDILAO(HK:06862)2026-02-11 02:15Company and Industry Summary Company: Haidilao Key Points 1. Bottoming Out: The fourth quarter showed no decline in table turnover year-on-year, and the average customer spending remained stable [1][2] 2. Management Improvement: Zhang Yong has been appointed as CEO of Haidilao to enhance efficiency and effectiveness from decision-making to execution, while maintaining a consistent strategy for the main brand and iterating on the development plan for the subsidiary, Hong Shiliu [1][2] 3. Cyclical High Elasticity: As a relatively low-frequency, mid-to-high-priced dining option among listed restaurants, Haidilao is expected to experience higher elasticity due to data improvements and anticipated policy stimuli, alongside potential growth from improved internal and external environments [1][2] 4. Hot Pot Business Outlook: Signals of bottoming out are strengthening, with same-store sales recovering steadily. The opening of new stores is projected to grow by a single-digit percentage, and profits are gradually returning to historical peak levels, with an estimated profit of 4.7 billion in 2024, although current tax reductions are decreasing [2] 5. Barbecue Business Outlook: - Store Openings: The domestic barbecue market is expected to reach approximately 106 billion in 2025, with 205,000 stores. The low chain rate in the barbecue sector suggests a potential for 1,000 new stores based on a market share of 0.5% [2] - Single Store Performance: The average customer spending is around 100 yuan, with projected annual revenue per store of approximately 8 million. For the first half of 2025, the barbecue segment is expected to contribute around 200 million in revenue, with a profit margin of 12%, leading to an estimated profit of 960,000 per store [2] 6. Investment Recommendations: Expected net profits for the parent company are projected at 4.2 billion, 4.6 billion, and 5.2 billion for 2025-2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 16, and 14 times. There is an emphasis on monitoring the company's progress in diversifying its business under strong incentives to build a new growth curve, with a "Buy" rating maintained in anticipation of bottoming out and management improvements by the end of 2026 [2]