再议玻纤行情-这一轮巨石和复材的高度可以看到多少

Summary of Conference Call on Glass Fiber Industry Industry Overview - The glass fiber industry is experiencing a tight supply-demand situation, particularly in the electronic fabric market, with upstream manufacturers like Shenmai potentially shutting down some production capacities by 2026 due to shortages in LCD production capacity [1][3] - The price of AI electronic fabrics continues to rise, leading traditional production lines to shift towards AI production, exacerbating shortages of traditional electronic fabrics [1][5] Key Insights and Arguments - The electronic fabric market is expected to see significant price increases, similar to the situation in Q4 2025 for storage chips, with potential price hikes of nearly 10% anticipated in Q1 [1][3] - Major players like China Jushi, which is the global leader in traditional electronic fabrics, have a production capacity exceeding 1.1 billion meters and are projected to reach profit peaks similar to the last boom cycle [1][6] - China Jushi's profit per meter is estimated at around 5 yuan, with expected sales of 1.2 billion meters this year, potentially contributing 6 billion yuan in profits from traditional electronic fabrics alone [2][7] Future Projections - The glass fiber industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in 2026, with both AI and traditional electronic fabrics continuing to rise in price, driven by strong demand in high-end sectors like wind power and thermoplastics [1][6] - China Jushi's target market value has been revised upwards to 150 billion yuan, reflecting its strong profit potential [2][8] - International Composite Materials is also expected to see an increase in its market value, revised to a range of 56 to 66 billion yuan, due to increased supply of new products and price increases [4][8] Other Important Insights - The main bottleneck in the glass fiber industry lies in weaving machines, with Toyota's limited production capacity affecting delivery capabilities [5] - Companies like Zhongtai Technology and Honghe Technology are expected to perform well, while others like Chaohai and Shandong Boxian may see slower growth due to their lack of involvement in high-elasticity electronic fabric businesses [9]