短期关税波动，但非科技出口复苏趋势未改

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Asia-Pacific Trade and Tariff Dynamics - Key Focus: Tariff changes and non-tech export recovery trends Core Insights - Tariff Reduction: Asian tariffs have decreased by 3 percentage points, with the weighted average tariff rate dropping from 20% to 17% following a Supreme Court decision in the U.S. [6][11] - Tariff Levels: The new tariff rate for imports from China has decreased from 32% to 24% [6][11] - Temporary Nature of Changes: The reduction in tariffs may be temporary, and there is potential for new tariffs to be implemented in the future [6][9] - Trade Agreements: Existing trade agreements are expected to remain effective, indicating stability in trade relations [10][13] Non-Tech Export Recovery - Improvement in Non-Tech Exports: Since October 2025, there has been a continuous improvement in non-tech exports, suggesting a fundamental recovery in demand [6][13] - Industrial Cycle Recovery: Signs of recovery in the industrial cycle have been observed, supported by investments in AI infrastructure and energy transition [13][15] Economic Impact - China's Economic Outlook: The impact of tariff changes on China is expected to be limited, with a potential GDP growth increase of 0.1-0.2 percentage points due to the tariff reduction [16][15] - Other Asian Economies: Tariff changes for other Asian economies are minimal, with reductions ranging from 1-3% [17][21] - India's Trade Growth: India is expected to benefit from tariff reductions, particularly in sectors facing punitive tariffs, and is actively pursuing trade agreements [21][22] Sector-Specific Insights - Semiconductor Sector: Strong demand in the semiconductor sector is anticipated to continue, particularly in storage chips, due to supply constraints and ongoing tariff exemptions [22] - ASEAN Economies: The overall impact of tariff changes on ASEAN economies is expected to be limited, but the likelihood of further tariff increases seems low, which may support trade cycles [22] Conclusion - Positive Macro Outlook for Asia: The overall macroeconomic outlook for Asia remains relatively positive, driven by the recovery in non-tech exports and industrial growth [13][10] - Future Tariff Policies: While there may be potential for new tariffs, the consensus is that the peak of tariff levels has likely been reached, providing a more stable environment for trade [10][13]