Pinnacle West(PNW) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company earned $0.13 per share, compared to a loss of $0.06 in Q4 2024, reflecting strong operational execution and cost management [12] - For the full year 2025, earnings were $5.05 per share, down from $5.24 per share in 2024, primarily due to weather impacts, with a $0.71 drag from weather normalization [13] - Weather-normalized sales growth for Q4 was 6.8%, contributing to a full-year growth of 5%, including 2% residential growth and 7.5% commercial and industrial growth [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a new system peak of 8,648 megawatts in August 2025, exceeding the previous year's peak by over 400 megawatts [6] - Customer satisfaction metrics improved, with the company ranking in the top quartile nationally for residential customer satisfaction and in the second quartile for business customers [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The customer base grew by 2.4% in 2025, driven by new businesses and residents in Arizona, indicating a strong economic environment [14] - The semiconductor sector, particularly with TSMC's expansion, is expected to drive significant economic activity, with agreements anticipated to spur at least $250 billion in additional investments [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on processing its rate case, executing grid expansion plans, and maintaining affordable rates for customers while finalizing commercial opportunities with large customers [5][11] - The capital program emphasizes reliability, grid resiliency, and meeting customer needs, with a rate-based growth guidance of 7%-9% through 2028 [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to meet rising demand and create long-term value, emphasizing the importance of safety and operational excellence [5][11] - The company aims to achieve a more linear earnings trajectory through the implementation of a formula rate, which would provide more consistent cost recovery [87][93] Other Important Information - The company successfully reduced O&M per megawatt hour by 3.3% year-over-year in 2025 and aims for further reductions in 2026 [15] - The company is actively engaged in discussions regarding potential new nuclear projects, although these are viewed as medium to long-term opportunities [61] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on capacity growth and IRP planning - The company plans to file an updated 15-year integrated resource plan mid-year, focusing on load forecasts and resource planning [19][20] Question: Credit metric update and holdco debt - The holdco debt percentage at year-end was approximately 17%, within the targeted range [22] Question: Future sales growth and assumptions - The sales growth forecast of 5%-7% is based on existing demand and projects with high confidence, with potential upside from uncommitted load [27][28] Question: Implications from the UNS case - The UNS case was viewed as generally constructive, with differences noted between UNS and APS situations [41][43] Question: Breakdown of committed versus uncommitted load - The majority of the 4.5GW committed load is from high load factor customers, primarily data centers, with ongoing negotiations for uncommitted load [50][51] Question: FFO to debt ratio and future outlook - The FFO to debt ratio is expected to remain above 14%, with a focus on maintaining a cushion for credit metrics [84][86] Question: TSMC expansions and clarity on future plans - The company is in active discussions with TSMC regarding their expansion plans, with readiness to articulate utility infrastructure needs once solidified [104]