Mach Natural Resources LP(MNR) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Year-end reserves for 2025 more than doubled from 337 million to 705 million barrels of oil equivalent [17] - Production for the quarter was 154,000 BOE per day, with a breakdown of 17% oil, 68% natural gas, and 15% NGLs [18] - Average realized prices were $58.14 per barrel of oil, $2.54 per Mcf of gas, and $21.28 per barrel of NGLs [18] - Total revenues for the quarter were $388 million, including $331 million from oil and gas revenues [19] - Adjusted EBITDA was $187 million, with operating cash flow of $169 million [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company shifted focus from oil-dominated assets to dry gas locations in the Deep Anadarko and San Juan [9] - In 2025, the company achieved a rate of return of approximately 40% by transitioning to natural gas [12] - The company plans to drill 7-8 dry gas Mancos wells in the San Juan, with projected costs of $15 million per well [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Bloomberg fair value price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil decreased from $71.72 in 2024 to $57.42 in 2025, while the price for Henry Hub Natural Gas improved from $3.43 in 2024 to $4.42 in 2025 [9] - The company anticipates a tightening of basis in the San Juan due to weather conditions affecting supply [53] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes delivering exceptional cash returns through distributions, having returned $1.3 billion to unitholders since 2018 [3] - The strategy includes disciplined execution in acquisitions, ensuring no asset is purchased above PDP PV-10 [4] - The company aims to maintain a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1x to ensure financial strength and flexibility for future acquisitions [14][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes that the business will remain critical in the coming decades, with prices expected to rise faster than inflation [8] - The company is cautious about M&A activities until debt levels are reduced, currently at 1.3 times leverage [25] - Management expressed confidence in the performance of the Mancos reservoir, expecting it to yield high rates of return once costs are lowered [36] Other Important Information - The company has distributed $5.67 per unit from the beginning of 2024, resulting in an annualized yield of 15% [3] - The company has a low corporate decline rate of 17%, allowing for stable production levels without the need for acquisitions [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Are there other activities to take advantage of oil prices? - Management indicated that if cash flow increases, they may consider adding another rig to drill more oil wells [22] Question: Any insights on the M&A market? - Management is currently sidelined for M&A until debt is reduced, focusing on paying down debt before considering acquisitions [25] Question: Can midstream assets be monetized to reduce debt? - Management prefers to retain midstream assets for long-term cash flow rather than selling them off [27] Question: What oil price is needed to proceed with the Oswego rig? - Management stated that oil prices above $70 would yield rates of return well north of 50%, justifying the use of capital for the Oswego program [41] Question: What caused the change in midstream profit guidance? - The improvement was due to reclassification of midstream operating expenses, leading to better operating profit [62]