Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR) is one of the 8 most undervalued oil stocks to buy. On March 16, Tim Rezvan of KeyBanc maintained his Hold rating on the Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR) stock. On the same day, Northland Securities’ Jeff Grampp maintained his Buy rating and the price target of $20. This price target offers a further 47% upside from here on. Drone Landing on BP (BP) Iraq Field Prompts Staff Evacuation An oil drilling platform. Photo by Jan-Rune Smenes Reite on Pexels. Mach Natura ...

Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR) is included among The $200 Oil Playbook: 10 Energy Stocks Positioned to Outperform as the Strait Remains Closed. Mach Natural Resources (MNR) Beats Estimates in Q4 2025 Results Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR) is an independent upstream oil and gas company focused on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and NGL reserves. Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR) reported strong results for its Q4 2025 on March 13, with its adjusted EPS of ...

Core Insights - Mach Natural Resources emphasizes a strategy focused on cash distributions, disciplined capital deployment, and flexibility in oil and natural gas development, with significant acquisitions and a shift towards natural gas drilling [4][6][8] Financial Performance - Year-end reserves doubled to 705 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE) from 337 MMBOE, reflecting successful drilling and acquisitions [14] - Fourth-quarter production averaged 154,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), with adjusted EBITDA of $187 million and cash available for distribution of $89 million, supporting a distribution of $0.53 per unit [5][17] - Total revenues, including hedges and midstream activities, reached $388 million, with hedges contributing $42 million [17] Strategic Initiatives - The company has distributed $1.3 billion to unitholders since late 2018, delivering $5.67 per unit in 2024, representing an annualized yield of 15% [3][7] - Mach has a rolling hedging program that covers 50% of year-one and 25% of year-two production to protect near-term cash flow [7][8] Operational Focus - The company is shifting its drilling focus towards natural gas in 2026, particularly in the San Juan and Deep Anadarko regions, while maintaining the option to return to oil drilling if market conditions are favorable [6][9][10] - Mach plans to drill 7-8 dry gas Mancos wells in the San Juan, with projected costs of $15 million per well and expected recovery of about 24 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of reserves [12] Debt Management and Acquisitions - The long-term target for debt-to-EBITDA is 1.0x, with a focus on paying down debt before pursuing new acquisitions [18] - The company is currently on the sidelines regarding mergers and acquisitions until leverage decreases from approximately 1.3x to 1.0x [18] Market Conditions - The company has adjusted its drilling activity based on commodity price forecasts, with WTI crude prices expected to decline from $71.72 in 2024 to $57.42 in 2025, while Henry Hub natural gas prices are projected to rise from $3.43 in 2024 to $4.42 in 2025 [8]

Core Insights - The company has invested $1.4 billion since 2018 in acquiring nearly 3 million acres of assets, which were previously undervalued, allowing for cash generation through sales [1][2] - The company emphasizes delivering exceptional cash returns, having distributed $1.3 billion to unitholders since inception, with a focus on maximizing distributions as a key strategic pillar [4][3] - The company has achieved an annualized yield of 15% and an average cash return on capital exceeding 30% over the last five years, showcasing strong performance compared to peers [3][4] Investment Strategy - The company has strategically acquired assets in distressed areas, allowing for drilling opportunities without high upfront costs, contrasting with competitors who pay significantly for fashionable locations [2][5] - The company plans to test the market for recouping costs associated with the Deep Anadarko and is not in a hurry to sell its San Juan land, which is held by production [5][6] - The company hedges 50% of its production in the first year and 25% in the second year to secure cash flow while maintaining exposure to future price increases [6][7] Operational Performance - The company has drilled over 250 Oswego locations since 2021, achieving rates of return above 50%, and plans to focus on natural gas wells in the San Juan and Deep Anadarko in 2026 [8][12] - The projected cost to drill and complete wells in the Deep Anadarko is between $14 million to $15 million per location, with an estimated ultimate recovery of approximately 19.5 Bcf [12][13] - The company aims to maintain a debt to EBITDA ratio of one times to ensure financial strength and flexibility for future acquisitions [14][10] Financial Results - For 2025, the company reported year-end reserves of 705 million barrels of oil equivalent, with production averaging 154,000 BOE per day [17][18] - Total revenues for the quarter reached $388 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $187 million and cash available for distribution amounting to $89 million [18][19] - The company has maintained a consistent distribution of $0.53 per unit, reflecting its commitment to returning cash to unitholders [19][4] Market Outlook - The company anticipates that oil prices will rise faster than inflation over the coming decades, reinforcing its belief in the long-term value of oil and natural gas [6][15] - The company is cautious about M&A activities until it reduces its current leverage from 1.3x, focusing on paying down debt before pursuing acquisitions [24][27] - The company is optimistic about the Mancos reservoir, expecting it to yield high rates of return as costs are lowered [30][39]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Year-end reserves increased from 337 million BOE to 705 million BOE, more than doubling due to drilling and acquisitions in 2025 [19] - Production for the quarter was 154,000 BOE per day, with 17% oil, 68% natural gas, and 15% NGLs [19] - Average realized prices were $58.14 per barrel of oil, $2.54 per Mcf of gas, and $21.28 per barrel of NGLs [19] - Total revenues reached $388 million, including $331 million from oil and gas revenues and $42 million from hedges [20] - Adjusted EBITDA was $187 million, with operating cash flow of $169 million [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company shifted focus from oil-dominated assets to dry gas locations in the Deep Anadarko and San Juan [10] - Development CapEx for the quarter was $77 million, representing 46% of operating cash flow [20] - The company plans to drill 7-8 dry gas Mancos wells in the San Juan, with projected costs of $15 million per well [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Bloomberg fair value price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil decreased from $71.72 in 2024 to $57.42 in 2025, while the price for Henry Hub Natural Gas improved from $3.43 in 2024 to $4.42 in 2025 [10] - The company anticipates an estimated ultimate recovery of approximately 19.5 Bcf in the Deep Anadarko [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes delivering exceptional cash returns through distributions, having returned $1.3 billion to unitholders since 2018 [3] - The strategy includes disciplined execution, with a focus on acquiring assets below PDP PV-10 and maintaining a low debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1x [4][16] - The company aims to maximize cash distributions while maintaining a reinvestment rate of no more than 50% [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes that oil and natural gas will remain critical to the world, with prices expected to rise faster than inflation [9] - The company is cautious about M&A activities until debt levels are reduced, currently at 1.3x leverage [27] - Management expressed confidence in the long-term value of oil and natural gas, emphasizing patience in acquisition strategies [18] Other Important Information - The company has distributed $5.67 per unit from the beginning of 2024, yielding an annualized return of 15% [3] - The company has a corporate decline rate of 17%, allowing it to maintain production levels without acquisitions [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Plans for additional rig to take advantage of higher oil prices - Management indicated that if cash flow increases, they would consider adding a second rig to drill more oil wells [24][25] Question: M&A market opportunities - Management is currently sidelined for M&A until debt is reduced, focusing on paying down debt before considering acquisitions [27] Question: Monetizing midstream assets - Management prefers to retain midstream assets for long-term cash flow rather than selling them off [29] Question: Performance of recent wells in the Deep Anadarko and Mancos - Initial wells in the Deep Anadarko performed better than expected, while Mancos wells are anticipated to yield high returns once costs are lowered [38][40] Question: Guidance on midstream profit improvement - The improvement in midstream profit guidance was due to accounting treatment adjustments related to throughput volumes [64]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Year-end reserves for 2025 more than doubled from 337 million to 705 million barrels of oil equivalent [17] - Production for the quarter was 154,000 BOE per day, with a breakdown of 17% oil, 68% natural gas, and 15% NGLs [18] - Average realized prices were $58.14 per barrel of oil, $2.54 per Mcf of gas, and $21.28 per barrel of NGLs [18] - Total revenues for the quarter were $388 million, including $331 million from oil and gas revenues [19] - Adjusted EBITDA was $187 million, with operating cash flow of $169 million [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company shifted focus from oil-dominated assets to dry gas locations in the Deep Anadarko and San Juan [9] - In 2025, the company achieved a rate of return of approximately 40% by transitioning to natural gas [12] - The company plans to drill 7-8 dry gas Mancos wells in the San Juan, with projected costs of $15 million per well [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Bloomberg fair value price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil decreased from $71.72 in 2024 to $57.42 in 2025, while the price for Henry Hub Natural Gas improved from $3.43 in 2024 to $4.42 in 2025 [9] - The company anticipates a tightening of basis in the San Juan due to weather conditions affecting supply [53] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes delivering exceptional cash returns through distributions, having returned $1.3 billion to unitholders since 2018 [3] - The strategy includes disciplined execution in acquisitions, ensuring no asset is purchased above PDP PV-10 [4] - The company aims to maintain a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1x to ensure financial strength and flexibility for future acquisitions [14][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes that the business will remain critical in the coming decades, with prices expected to rise faster than inflation [8] - The company is cautious about M&A activities until debt levels are reduced, currently at 1.3 times leverage [25] - Management expressed confidence in the performance of the Mancos reservoir, expecting it to yield high rates of return once costs are lowered [36] Other Important Information - The company has distributed $5.67 per unit from the beginning of 2024, resulting in an annualized yield of 15% [3] - The company has a low corporate decline rate of 17%, allowing for stable production levels without the need for acquisitions [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Are there other activities to take advantage of oil prices? - Management indicated that if cash flow increases, they may consider adding another rig to drill more oil wells [22] Question: Any insights on the M&A market? - Management is currently sidelined for M&A until debt is reduced, focusing on paying down debt before considering acquisitions [25] Question: Can midstream assets be monetized to reduce debt? - Management prefers to retain midstream assets for long-term cash flow rather than selling them off [27] Question: What oil price is needed to proceed with the Oswego rig? - Management stated that oil prices above $70 would yield rates of return well north of 50%, justifying the use of capital for the Oswego program [41] Question: What caused the change in midstream profit guidance? - The improvement was due to reclassification of midstream operating expenses, leading to better operating profit [62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Year-end reserves for 2025 more than doubled from 337 million to 705 million barrels of oil equivalent [16] - Production for the quarter was 154,000 BOE per day, with 17% oil, 68% natural gas, and 15% NGLs [17] - Average realized prices were $58.14 per barrel of oil, $2.54 per Mcf of gas, and $21.28 per barrel of NGLs [17] - Total revenues for the quarter were $388 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $187 million and operating cash flow at $169 million [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company shifted focus from oil-dominated assets to dry gas locations in the Deep Anadarko and San Juan, with a successful transition reflected in production rates [8][11] - Development costs for 2025 were $252 million, representing 47% of operating cash flow, while development CapEx for the quarter was $77 million, or 46% of operating cash flow [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Bloomberg fair value price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil decreased from $71.72 in 2024 to $57.42 in 2025, while the price for Henry Hub Natural Gas improved from $3.43 to $4.42 [8] - The company anticipates a tightening of basis in the San Juan market due to weather conditions affecting supply dynamics [50] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes maximizing cash distributions to unitholders, with a target reinvestment rate of no more than 50% [10] - The strategy includes disciplined execution in acquisitions, ensuring assets are not overpaid for, and maintaining a low debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1x [13] - The company plans to drill 7-8 dry gas Mancos wells in 2026, focusing on cost reduction and maximizing returns [12][68] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term value of oil and natural gas, highlighting the importance of patience in acquisition strategies [15] - The company is currently focused on paying down debt before pursuing further acquisitions, with a preference for maintaining production levels through drilling [23][24] Other Important Information - The company has distributed a total of $1.3 billion to unitholders since its inception, showcasing a consistent cash return strategy [3] - The company has a strong belief that prices for oil and gas will rise faster than inflation over the coming decades [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Plans for additional rig and secondary activities - Management indicated that if cash flow increases, they would consider adding a second rig to capitalize on higher oil prices, particularly in the $70 range [20][21] Question: M&A market opportunities - Management is currently sidelined for M&A until debt levels decrease, focusing on paying down existing debt before considering acquisitions [22][24] Question: Monetizing midstream assets - Management expressed reluctance to sell midstream assets, as they provide valuable long-term cash flow [25] Question: Guidance on natural gas differentials - Management noted widening basis in the Anadarko and San Juan markets but expects tightening as weather conditions normalize [50] Question: Performance of recent wells - Recent wells in the Deep Anadarko performed as expected, with the Mancos reservoir showing potential for high rates of return once costs are reduced [34][52]

Full-Year 2025 Earnings Presentation March 2026 NYSE: MNR machnr.com Disclaimer and Forward-Looking Statements This presentation is being provided by Mach Natural Resources LP (the "Company" or "Mach") for informational purposes only. No persons have been authorized to make any representations regarding the information contained in this presentation, and if given or made, such representations should not be considered as authorized. None of the Company, its respective affiliates or any of its or their respec ...

Group 1 - Mach Natural Resources LP has made its 2025 Schedule K-1 tax packages available for common unitholders, which can be accessed online [1] - The company plans to start mailing the 2025 tax packages around March 19, 2026, and provides a support line for unitholders [1] - Mach Natural Resources LP is an independent upstream oil and gas company focused on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and NGL reserves across various basins [1] Group 2 - The company reported a 109% increase in total proved reserves and strong distributions for 2025, with a quarterly cash distribution of $89 million for Q4 2025, equating to $0.53 per common unit, a 96% increase from Q3 2025 [1] - Mach Natural Resources LP will report its fourth quarter and full year 2025 results on March 12, 2026, and will host a conference call to discuss these results [1] - The board of directors declared a cash distribution of $0.53 per common unit for Q4 2025, to be paid on March 12, 2026, to unitholders of record as of February 26, 2026 [1]

Core Insights - Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) reported quarterly earnings of $0.43 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.26 per share, but down from $0.62 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +66.99% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $387.54 million for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.08% and significantly up from $234.94 million year-over-year [2] - MNR shares have increased by approximately 21.4% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with a 1% decline in the S&P 500 [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.34, with projected revenues of $367.09 million, and for the current fiscal year, the EPS estimate is $1.04 on revenues of $1.43 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for MNR was unfavorable prior to the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, to which MNR belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 25% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [8]