美国经济展望：中东冲突影响；美联储陷入两难-United States Economic Outlook_ Middle East Conflict Impacts; Fed in a Pickle

2 3 4 5 6 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 $/gallon Figure 1: Retail gasoline prices Source: AAA, J.P. Morgan Diesel Regular gasoline For the economic outlook, the simplest implication is the impact on energy prices. This is the principal reason we are revising up our CPI forecast (2026 4Q/4Q) from 3.2% to 3.4%. The impact on food and core prices is more debatable. Prices for fertilizers, which are disproportionately produced in the Persian Gulf region, are up substantially since the con- flict began. Futures ...