毛戈平：业绩修正-2025 年下半年符合预期；为 2026 年持续强劲增长预留利润缓冲；买入

Summary of Mao Geping Cosmetics Co. (1318.HK) Earnings Call Company Overview - Company: Mao Geping Cosmetics Co. (1318.HK) - Market Cap: HK$34.1 billion / $4.4 billion - Industry: Cosmetics Key Financial Highlights - 2H25 Performance: - Sales growth of 29% year-over-year (yoy) to RMB2,462 million, 1% above Goldman Sachs estimates (GSe) [1] - Net income (NI) increased by 38% yoy to RMB534 million, largely in line with consensus [1][25] - Full year 2025 revenue reached RMB5,050.5 million, up 30% yoy, consistent with GSe [1][18] - Adjusted NI for 2025 grew 31% yoy to RMB1,209 million, slightly below GSe [1] - Margins: - Gross profit margin (GPM) expanded by 0.4 percentage points (ppt) yoy to 84.3%, exceeding GSe [22] - Operating profit margin (OPM) increased by 1.1ppt yoy to 27.3%, also above GSe [24] - Net margin expanded by 1.4ppt yoy to 21.7%, slightly below GSe [25] - Dividend: - Declared a final dividend of RMB1.00 per share, implying a 41% payout ratio, above GSe of 30% [26] Sales Breakdown - By Category: - Color cosmetics sales grew by 29% yoy in 2H25 to RMB1,574 million, representing 64% of total sales [19] - Skincare sales increased by 28% yoy to RMB786 million, accounting for 32% of total sales [19] - By Channel: - Offline sales rose by 22% yoy to RMB1,202 million, with DTC sales growing by 24% yoy [20] - Online sales surged by 39% yoy to RMB1,180 million, with online DTC sales increasing by 33% yoy [22] Future Outlook - 2026 Estimates: - Expected sales of RMB6.6 billion and NI of RMB1.5 billion, representing growth of 30% and 28% yoy respectively [2][29] - Target price (TP) revised to HK$106, implying a 52.2% upside from current price [1][30] - Growth Drivers: - Anticipated strong growth in online and offline channels, with 40% and 21% growth expected respectively in 2026 [3] - Continued focus on margin sustainability and ROI across channels [17] Valuation Metrics - P/E Ratios: - 2026E P/E at 35.5x, decreasing to 19.5x by 2026E and further to 16.5x by 2027E [11] - Target P/E exit multiple remains at 28x, reflecting a 30% premium to industry base multiple [30] Additional Insights - Operational Efficiency: - Selling and distribution expenses increased by 31% yoy, but admin expenses decreased by 1% yoy, indicating improved operational efficiency [23] - Effective tax rate decreased by 0.6ppt yoy to 24.5% [24] - Market Position: - Company is positioned to deliver the fastest growth among covered cosmetics companies, supported by a robust product pipeline and strategic initiatives [3][17] This summary encapsulates the key points from the earnings call, highlighting the company's performance, future outlook, and valuation metrics.